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Soviet Union [USSR] The Twelfth Five-Year Plan, 1986-90
Following the disappointing performance of Soviet agriculture
during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, the Twelfth Five-Year Plan got
off to a promising start, with larger than expected grain harvests
and improved labor productivity. Nevertheless, Western analysts
viewed as unrealistic most of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan production
targets--both those set forth in the Food Program of 1982 and those
subsequently revised downward.
According to the document Basic Directions for the Economic
and Social Development of the USSR for 1986-1990 and for the Period
to the Year 2000, the Soviet Union would significantly increase
production of all agricultural commodities. The ambitious 1990
production target ranges laid out in this document called for
increases over the average annual output of the Eleventh Five-Year
Plan. The target ranges for agricultural commodities were as
follows: grain from 38.7 to 41.4 percent; sugar beets from 20.6 to
24.5 percent; sunflower seeds from 48.9 to 50.9 percent; potatoes
from 14.9 to 17.4 percent; vegetables from 36.9 to 43.7 percent;
fruits, berries, and grapes from 40.4 to 51.6 percent; raw cotton
from 9.5 to 13.1 percent; meat from 10.7 to 29.4 percent; milk from
12.1 to 16.3 percent; and eggs from 7.5 to 10.2 percent. The 1990
goals for the fishing industry ranged from 4.4 to 4.6 million tons
of fish food products and about 3 billion cans of fish preserve.
The forestry industry was tasked with increasing the production of
pulp by 15 to 18 percent, of paper by 11 to 15 percent, and of
fiberboard by 17 to 20 percent. As in all sectors of the economy,
conservation of raw materials and reduction of waste in
transportation and storage of commodities were to be emphasized
more than in any previous period.
Although grain harvests were excellent in 1986 and 1987, output
fell to only 195 million tons in 1988, forcing the Soviet Union to
import more than 36 million tons that year. The 1988 harvest of
potatoes, other vegetables, and fruits also declined as compared
with the previous two years. As a result, the availability of food
products throughout the country worsened, and in mid-1989 many
Western observers believed a severe shortage and possibly famine
were impending. Clearly the Twelfth Five-Year Plan's goals for
agriculture would not be attained, a severe setback for Gorbachev's
perestroika efforts.
* * *
An invaluable source of statistical data on the agro-industrial
complex is the 1987 publication Narodnoe khoziaistvo SSSR za 70
let, compiled by the Soviet Union's State Committee for
Statistics. USSR Situation and Outlook Report, published
annually by the United States Department of Agriculture's Economic
Research Service, presents a concise overview of recent Soviet
agricultural performance. D. Gale Johnson and Karen McConnell
Brooks's Prospects for Soviet Agriculture in the 1980s
examines Soviet agricultural efficiency in light of policy and
natural and climatic factors. The Soviet Rural Economy,
edited by Robert C. Stuart, presents several highly pertinent
essays on Soviet agriculture, including Michael L. Wyzan's "The
Kolkhoz and the Sovkhoz," Valentin Litvin's "Agro-Industrial
Complexes," and Everett M. Jacobs's "Soviet Agricultural Management
and Planning and the 1982 Administrative Reforms." Two other
important anthologies are Agricultural Policies in the USSR and
Eastern Europe, edited by Ronald A. Francisco, Betty A. Laird,
and Roy D. Laird, and Soviet Agricultural and Peasant
Affairs, edited by Roy D. Laird. Paul E. Lydolph's classic
Geography of the USSR provides a comprehensive description
of Soviet agricultural resources, including forestry and fishing.
The evolution of current policy is traced by Karl-Eugen Waedekin in
numerous Radio Liberty Research Bulletin reports, including
"The Private Agricultural Sector in the 1980s," "What Is New about
Brigades in Soviet Agriculture?" and "`Contract' and `Normless'
Labor on Soviet Farms." Zhores A. Medvedev's Soviet
Agriculture and Valentin Litvin's The Soviet Agro-Industrial
Complex provide highly detailed descriptions of the
organization and functioning of Soviet agriculture. (For further
information and complete citations,
see Soviet Union USSR -
Bibliography.)
Data as of May 1989
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