Ethiopia Population
Size, Distribution, and Growth
Source: Based on information from United Nations,
Demographic Yearbook, 1989, New York, 1991, 116-67.
Figure 7. Population by Age and Sex, 1989.
Ethiopia's population was estimated at 51.7 million in
1990. According to the nation's only census, conducted in
1984, Ethiopia's population was about 42 million. But the
census was far from comprehensive. The rural areas of
Eritrea and Tigray were excluded because of hostilities. In
addition, the population in the southern parts of Bale and
Harerge could only be estimated because of the prevalence of
pastoral nomadism.
The 1984 census revealed that Ethiopia's population was
about 89 percent rural, and this percentage did not appear
to have changed by the late 1980s
(see table 2,
Appendix).
This segment included many nomadic and seminomadic peoples.
The Ethiopian population always has been predominantly
rural, engaging in sedentary agricultural activities such as
the cultivation of crops and livestock-raising in the
highlands. In the lowlands, the main activities
traditionally have been subsistence farming by seminomadic
groups and seasonal grazing of livestock by nomadic people.
The distribution of Ethiopia's population generally is
related to altitude, climate, and soil. These physical
factors explain the concentration of population in the
highlands, which are endowed with moderate temperatures,
rich soil, and adequate rainfall. About 14 percent of the
population lives in areas above 2,400 meters (cool climatic
zone), about 75 percent between 1,500 and 2,400 meters
(temperate zone), and only 11 percent below 1,500 meters
(hot climatic zone), although the hot zone encompasses more
than half of Ethiopia's territory. Localities with
elevations above 3,000 meters and below 1,500 meters are
sparsely populated, the first because of cold temperatures
and rugged terrain, which limit agricultural activity, and
the second because of high temperatures and low rainfall,
except in the west and southwest.
Although census data indicated that overall density was
about thirty-seven people per square kilometer, density
varied from over 100 per square kilometer for Shewa and
seventy-five for Arsi to fewer than ten in the Ogaden, Bale,
the Great Rift Valley, and the western lowlands adjoining
Sudan. There was also great variation among the populations
of the various administrative regions (see table
3,
Appendix).
In 1990 officials estimated the birth rate at forty-five
births per 1,000 population and the total fertility rate
(the average number of children that would be born to a
woman during her lifetime) at about seven per 1,000
population. Census findings indicated that the birth rate
was higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Ethiopia's
birth rate, high even among developing countries, is
explained by early and universal marriage, kinship and
religious beliefs that generally encourage large families, a
resistance to contraceptive practices, and the absence of
family planning services for most of the population. Many
Ethiopians believe that families with many children have
greater financial security and are better situated to
provide for their elderly members.
In the absence of a national population policy or the
provision of more than basic health services, analysts
consider the high birth rate likely to continue. A
significant consequence of the high birth rate is that the
population is young; children under fifteen years of age
made up nearly 50 percent of the population in 1989 (see
fig. 7). Thus, a large
segment
of the
population was
dependent and likely to require heavy expenditures on
education, health, and social services.
In 1990 the death rate was estimated at fifteen per 1,000
population (down from 18.1 per 1,000 in 1984). This also was
a very high rate but typical of poor developing countries.
The high death rate was a reflection of the low standard of
living, poor health conditions, inadequate health
facilities, and high rates of infant mortality (116 per
1,000 live births in 1990; 139 per 1,000 in 1984) and child
mortality. Additional factors contributing to the high death
rate include infectious diseases, poor sanitation,
malnutrition, and food shortages. Children are even more
vulnerable to such deprivations. In Ethiopia half of the
total deaths involve children under five years of age. In
addition, drought and famine in the 1980s, during which more
than 7 million people needed food aid, interrupted the
normal evolution of mortality and fertility and undoubtedly
left many infants and children with stunted physical and
mental capabilities. Life expectancy in 1990 was estimated
at forty-nine years for males and fifty-two years for
females.
Generally, birth rates, infant mortality rates, and overall
mortality rates were lower in urban areas than in rural
areas. As of 1990, urban residents had a life expectancy of
just under fifty-three years, while rural residents had a
life expectancy of forty-eight years. The more favorable
statistics for urban areas can be explained by the wider
availability of health facilities, greater knowledge of
sanitation, easier access to clean water and food, and a
slightly higher standard of living.
There has been a steady increase in the population growth
rate since 1960. Based on 1984 census data, population
growth was estimated at about 2.3 percent for the 1960-70
period, 2.5 percent for the 1970-80 period, and 2.8 percent
for the 1980-85 period. Population projections compiled in
1988 by the Central Statistical Authority (CSA) projected a
2.83 percent growth rate for 1985-90 and a 2.96 percent
growth rate for 1990-95. This would result in a population
of 57.9 million by 1995. Estimated annual growth for
1995-2000 varied from 3.03 percent to 3.16 percent.
Population estimates ranged from 67.4 million to 67.8
million by the year 2000. The CSA projected that Ethiopia's
population could range from 104 million to 115 million by
the year 2015. The International Development Association
(IDA) provided a more optimistic estimate. Based on the
assumption of a gradual fertility decline, such as might be
caused by steady economic development without high priority
given to population and family planning programs, the
population growth rate might fall to about 2.8 percent per
annum in 1995-2000 and to 2.1 percent in 2010-15, resulting
in a population of 93 million in 2015.
Analysts believed that reducing the population growth rate
was a pressing need, but one that could only be addressed
through a persistent and comprehensive nationwide effort
over the long term. As of early 1991, the Ethiopian regime
had shown no commitment to such a program.
Variations in population growth existed among
administrative regions. Kefa, Sidamo, and Shewa had the
highest average growth rates for the 1967-84 period, ranging
from 4.2 percent for Kefa to 3.5 percent for Sidamo and
Shewa. Whereas Shewa's population growth was the result of
Addis Ababa's status as the administrative, commercial, and
industrial center of Ethiopia, Kefa and Sidamo grew
primarily because of agricultural and urban development. The
population in administrative regions such as Harerge, Welo,
and Tigray, which had been hard hit by famine and
insurrection, grew at slow rates: 1.3 percent, 1 percent,
and 0.2 percent, respectively. Generally, the population of
most central and western administrative regions grew more
rapidly than did the population of the eastern and northern
administrative regions.
Data as of 1991
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