|
East Germany THE FIVE-YEAR PLAN, 1986-90
The East German economic leadership published its directive
on the 1986-90 Five-Year Plan during the Eleventh Party Congress
of the SED in April 1986. The basic components of the "economic
strategy for the 1980s," with the general goal of
"intensification," remained in effect.
Specific targets for the plan were relatively modest.
National income was to grow at 4.4 to 4.7 percent annually (the
average rate for 1981-85 was 4.4). Industrial goods production
was to increase by 3.7 to 4.1 percent annually; the fastest
growth was planned for the electrical engineering and electronics
sectors. In general, the process of concentration in industry was
to continue, with additional production stages integrated into
the Kombinate. With regard to energy, the increasing use
of domestic lignite was to continue. By 1990 lignite was to meet
about 78 to 80 percent of primary energy needs. Nuclear energy
would provide 15 percent of electric power by 1990. Apparently
the 1986 nuclear reactor accident at Chernobyl in the Soviet
Union and the worldwide decline in oil prices had not brought
about a change in East Germany's energy policies, although public
statements by East German leaders suggested that some reappraisal
was occurring. Primary energy consumption as a whole was to grow
by only 1 percent per year. In agriculture, crop and livestock
production was to be stabilized at the 1985 level--actually an
ambitious target since 1985 was a record year.
The 1986-90 plan called for special efforts in what was
called "key technology," which included microelectronics, modern
computer and automation technology, industrial robots, and
biotechnology. Inputs from these areas were expected to boost
productivity in numerous ways. The plan expected the major
impetus for economic growth to come from research and
development, which was expected to improve production efficiency,
increase the quality of existing production, and introduce new
high-quality products. The government hoped in particular that in
the coming five years the Kombinate would be able to
generate from their own resources both a larger proportion of the
investment funds they needed and new efficiency measures,
technologies, and products. This objective entailed a modest
degree of controlled decentralization, comparable in some
respects with reforms that were being proposed in the Soviet
Union. Western observers anticipated no radical procedural
changes, however, given the caution customarily displayed by the
East German leaders and their public praise for "tried-and-tested
policy" and "the proven course."
The 1986-90 plan targets suggested that after the strenuous
efforts made in the early 1980s to increase exports--and the
domestic bottlenecks these efforts produced, especially for
consumers--there would be some effort to promote both investment
and private consumption, although exports were still to have a
high priority. Investment efforts would continue to focus on
modernization and improved utilization of existing resources, but
the government had relaxed somewhat the restrictive investment
policies of the previous plan period. For consumers, the
projected growth of retail trade turnover in manufactured goods
(a measure of consumption) was 5.3 percent, compared with 4.2
percent during the previous period. Prices for basic consumer
goods were to remain constant until 1990. The plan called for an
increase in the supply of consumer electronics, technical goods,
sports and leisure goods, furniture, building materials, and
quality clothing in particular. Finally, the housing program,
long a high priority, would continue and would be virtually
completed by 1990.
Some Western observers suggested that, with regard to
inefficiencies within the East German economic system, many of
the most obvious and least disruptive measures to improve
productivity had already been taken. In the mid-1980s, commitment
to central planning remained strong and continued to limit the
reform options available to the planners. Consequently, it was
possible that the East German leadership would seek to expand the
country's productive capacity through extensive and potentially
expensive investment and technological upgrading. East Germany's
improved credit status in the mid-1980s made this approach a
viable option.
* * *
Current English-language sources of information on the East
German economy are few in number. The East German government's
Central Statistical Office publishes reports concerning
fulfillment of annual and five-year plans in the English-language
series entitled "Documents on the Policy of the German Democratic
Republic." For a retrospective view of aspects of the economy's
development, Economic Reform in East
German Industry (translated from the German) by
Gert Leptin and Manfred Melzer is helpful. An interesting study
of consumer conditions in East Germany is The
Consumer under Socialist Planning:
The East German Case by Phillip J. Bryson.
In German, two major sources of information are the East
German Handbuch Deutsche Demokratische
Republik (1984) and the two-volume West German DDR
Handbuch (third edition, 1985), edited by Hartmut
Zimmermann et al. The ongoing publications of the Institute for
Economic Research in West Berlin, particularly its DIW
Wochenbericht, are excellent sources of information. The East
German Statistisches Jahrbuch, with its yearly
report of official statistics, is indispensable. The party
newspaper Neues Deutschland and the monthly journal
Wirtschaftswissenschaft provide ongoing accounts of
economic developments. (For further information and complete
citations,
see
Bibliography.)
Data as of July 1987
|
