|
Jordan The Israeli Invasion of Lebanon
The June 1982, the Israeli invasion of Lebanon significantly
altered Jordan's geostrategic position. Israel's willingness to
remove PLO bases from Lebanon by force, despite widespread
international criticism, raised apprehensions that Israel might
launch an offensive against Jordan. The Arab states, weakened by
internal rivalries, the Iran-Iraq War, and Egypt's isolation, did
not respond forcefully to the Israeli actions. Hussein viewed the
Lebanon invasion as part of a pattern of more aggressive Israeli
policies that included the 1981 bombing of the Iraqi nuclear
reactor, confrontations with Syria, and an ambitious settlement
policy in the occupied territories. The government of Menachem
Begin, unlike its predecessors, was willing to use force to attain
its territorial objectives. This led to concerns that Israel might
have designs on Jordan, or that the PLO, after having its major
base of operations in Lebanon destroyed, might attempt to
reestablish itself in Jordan. Hussein also feared that Israeli
settlement activity in the West Bank was rapidly reducing the
chances of an acceptable settlement there.
To many Middle East experts, the increase in settlements, their
strategic location, the militancy of many of the Israeli settlers,
the rise of religious nationalism inside the political mainstream
in Israel, and the expansionary views of the Likud leadership lent
urgency to the need to reach a negotiated settlement. Jordan hoped
to convince the Reagan administration to push policy makers in
Jerusalem toward an acceptable peace settlement.
On September 1, 1982, President Reagan launched the Reagan
Plan. Hussein applauded the new American proposal, seeing in it a
clear break from the Camp David framework. In announcing the new
plan, Reagan stated that "it was the firm view of the United States
that self-government by the Palestinians of the West Bank and Gaza
in association with Jordan offers the best chance for a durable and
lasting peace," specifying that the United States would not support
the establishment of a Palestinian state. The Reagan Plan also
stressed UN Resolution 242, stating that the resolution applied to
all fronts, including the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and that
the final status of Jerusalem should be decided through
negotiation.
The war in Lebanon and the publication of the Reagan Plan
ushered in a new symbiosis in Jordanian-PLO relations. Hussein
needed PLO acceptance of Jordan's participation in the peace
process in the framework of the Reagan Plan; PLO chairman Yasir
Arafat, considerably weakened by the PLO's devastating defeat in
the war in Lebanon, needed Jordanian support to gain access to the
political process. In October 1982, Hussein and Arafat began a
series of meetings designed to formulate a joint response to the
Reagan Plan. These negotiations centered around the formation of a
Jordanian-Palestinian delegation to future peace talks, and--
because neither Israel nor the United States recognized the PLO--on
the extent to which the PLO would be directly associated with this
delegation. Jordan proposed that the PLO appoint West Bank
residents who were not members of the PLO to represent the
Palestinians. In November 1982, agreement was reached on the
formation of a Higher Jordanian-Palestinian Committee headed by
Prime Minister Mudar Badran and Arafat.
Because of conflicting objectives sought by Arafat and Hussein,
the joint Palestinian-Jordanian committee never materialized.
Whereas Hussein saw the proposed confederation as a means to
reestablish Jordanian control over the West Bank, Arafat viewed the
negotiations as a means to gain PLO sovereignty over the occupied
territories. In addition, Hussein and Arafat required evidence that
Washington was willing to pressure Israel to make significant
territorial concessions. Meanwhile, Israeli troops still occupied
part of southern Lebanon, and the Israeli government had not made
any commitments on the settlement issue. Moreover, given Iran's
recent victories in its war with Iraq, tensions with Syria, and a
depressed world oil market, Hussein could not isolate Jordan by
unilaterally participating in the Reagan Plan without some show of
Israeli flexibility.
Following Hussein's decision in April 1983 not to join the
Reagan Plan, Jordan increasingly criticized Washington's inability
to apply pressure on Israel to halt settlements in the West Bank.
United States-Jordanian relations were further strained in May 1983
when the Reagan administration lifted a ban on the sale of F-16
aircraft to Israel. The ban had been imposed to pressure Israel to
withdraw its forces from Lebanon. The United States opposed a
Jordanian draft resolution submitted to the UN Security Council in
July 1983 asserting the illegality of Israeli settlement activity
in the West Bank, and relations between the two countries were
further soured by the signing in November 1983 of a new agreement
on strategic cooperation between Israel and the United States.
Syria emerged from the war in Lebanon as a pivotal regional
power, able and willing to play a role in the affairs of
neighboring Arab states. Whereas Syrian power was on the rise,
Jordan's most powerful Arab ally, Iraq, seemed to be losing its
costly war with Iran. Hussein tried to counterbalance the Syrian
threat by making overtures to President Husni Mubarak of Egypt, but
did not yet reestablish diplomatic relations. Hussein hoped that
Mubarak, who had replaced Sadat after the latter's assassination in
September 1981, would bring Egypt back into the Arab fold after
Sinai was returned to Egypt in September 1982.
High-level talks between Egypt and Jordan occurred regularly
throughout 1983 and 1984. In addition, Egyptian newspapers, banned
in Jordan after the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, were allowed
into the country in October 1983. Also, Jordan and Egypt signed a
trade protocol in December 1983 and discussed the expansion of
scientific and agricultural cooperation. Finally, in September
1984, Jordan officially announced the resumption of diplomatic
relations with Egypt.
* * *
Philip K. Hitti's History of the Arabs from the Earliest
Times to the Present is a classic survey of the subject by an
eminent historian. Much material on the origin and development of
the Transjordanian amirate is found in J.C. Hurewitz's The
Struggle for Palestine and Christopher Sykes's Crossroads to
Israel, 1917-1948. For a scholarly analysis of the growth of
Arab nationalism, see Zeine N. Zeine's The Emergence of Arab
Nationalism and The Struggle for Arab Independence,
which may be used to supplement George Antonius's more familiar
The Arab Awakening. Glubb's Legion, by Godfrey Lias,
is a sympathetic, popular treatment of the activities of the Arab
Legion. Sir John Bagot Glubb's memoir, A Soldier with the
Arabs, is both entertaining and informative. Another firsthand
British account of Jordan's historical development is Charles
Johnston's The Brink of Jordan. Both King Abdullah and his
grandson, Hussein, have provided readable memoirs that can be
studied profitably in conjunction with more objective scholarly
works. Peter Snow, a British journalist, has written the most
accessible biography of Hussein.
Two excellent scholarly books focusing on Britain's role in the
development of Jordan were published in the late 1980s. These are
Mary C. Wilson's King Abdullah, Britain, and the Making of
Jordan and Avi Shlaim's highly controversial Collusion
Across the Jordan, which depicts secret Zionist-Hashimite
collaboration over the final settlement of Palestine. Another
useful work covering the early history of Jordan is Uriel Dann's
Studies in the History of Transjordan, 1920-1949. Avi
Plascov's The Palestinian Refugees in Jordan, 1948-57 offers
an interesting analysis of the Palestinian refugee problem.
A solid general survey of Jordan is Peter Gubser's
Jordan. The Jordan sections in the Middle East
Contemporary Survey provide fairly detailed coverage of
political and economic events. Robert B. Satloff's Troubles on
the East Bank: Challenges to the Domestic Stability of Jordan
focuses on the more recent history of Jordan. Bernard Avishai's
articles on Jordan in the New York Review of Books during
the early 1980s provide keen insights into contemporary Jordanian
history. (For further information and complete citations,
see Jordan -
Bibliography.)
Data as of December 1989
|
