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Belarus Russia
Even though Belarus's new constitution declared that it
is a
neutral country, the reality at independence was that
Russia was
Belarus's neighbor, its military partner, and its largest
economic partner. Belarus's heavy economic dependence on
Russia,
especially for critically needed fuels, has serious
political
consequences. Russia not only could bring political
pressure on
Belarus but could also bring the country to its knees
economically by withholding oil and natural gas. And with
more
than 1.5 million ethnic Russians living in Belarus and
many of
the officers in the Belarusian armed forces being ethnic
Russians, Russia is in a position to influence Belarus in
more
subtle ways as well.
The opposition is aware that the government of
Alyaksandr
Lukashyenka, using economic difficulties as justification,
could
try to append Belarus to Russia, not only economically but
also
militarily and politically. Lukashyenka has made it clear
from
the start that he wants a "special relationship" with
Moscow,
which, in terms of national security, would mean relying
on
Russia to ensure Belarus's security and, perhaps, giving
Russia a
"right of supervision" over Belarusian foreign and
security
policy.
Some hard-liners have called for closer contacts not
only
with the CIS but also with Russia itself. Because Belarus
is so
dependent on Russia already, they argue, it would make
sense to
be allied with it militarily as well. The Russian troops
and
missiles still on Belarus's soil would seem to make this
alliance
the logical choice, but it runs counter to the Belarusian
constitution's goal of neutrality. The public itself is
divided
on the issue.
Nevertheless, although Russia has strong security
concerns
regarding Belarus, it does not appear interested in taking
Belarus under its wing economically. Russia has made a
number of
changes in its finances and its economy that Belarus has
not
replicated; many in Russia see Belarus as a continuing
drain on
Russia's own financial resources.
The most concrete efforts to date at a close
relationship
between the two countries lie in the economic and monetary
spheres. By June 1, 1994, Belarus had harmonized its
interstate
trade regulations and taxation schemes with those of
Russia; most
export and import fees on mutual trade were abolished. In
May
1995, Belarus and Russia signed a customs union that
eliminated
customs checkpoints along their joint border (effective
July 15,
1995) and also signed an agreement on cooperation in
maintaining
state borders.
Data as of June 1995
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