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Egypt The Food Gap
In 1960 Egypt was self-sufficient in almost all basic food
commodities, with the exception of wheat, of which the country had
a self-sufficiency ratio (domestic production in relation to
consumption) of 70 percent. The self-sufficiency ratio declined
dramatically for most products during the 1970s and 1980s, and
economists began to speak of a serious food gap in Egypt (see
table 8, Appendix). Food security, in the sense of adequate production
and provision of food to consumers at relatively low prices, also
became a linchpin of agricultural and development policies.
Food gap data were difficult to ascertain, especially because
public-sector food imports often bypassed customs. By the end of
the 1980s, the self-sufficiency ratio was only around 20 percent
for wheat, lentils, and edible oil. The major basic staple for
which Egypt did not rely on external supply sources was rice. The
country also produced most of the poultry and eggs it consumed. On
the whole, it imported more than one-half of the food consumed, and
food imports made up about one-quarter of total imports. Meanwhile,
agricultural exports, mainly cotton, were declining, and Egypt was
transformed from a net agricultural exporter to a net importer
(see Foreign Trade
, this ch.). Most worrisome, both financially and
politically, was the wheat gap: wheat was the basic staple of the
Egyptian diet. Some of the external wheat supply came in the form
of aid, especially from the United States, which donated about 10
percent to 20 percent of wheat consumed. But food aid was not a
secure source because of the volatility of politics, and, in any
case, the share of food aid dropped as the country's consumption
grew.
Moreover, food subsidies to consumers imposed severe strains on
the budget deficit. The debt-ridden government faced difficulties
finding creditors to finance food imports, and rising world food
commodity prices may have added as much as US$600 million to wheat
imports alone in 1989. Food shortages were reported in 1988 and
1989, including such basic items as tea, sugar, and oil.
The drop in food self-sufficiency was attributed, on the demand
side, to the rising demand caused by high rates of population
growth, the rapid rise of incomes in the 1970s, and subsidized
prices, and, on the supply side, to the slow growth of agricultural
yields. Egyptians consumed annually less than 110 kilograms per
capita of wheat in 1960. In the 1980s, the wheat supply was enough
to provide 175 to 200 kilograms per capita, compared with a world
average of less than 60 to 75 kilograms per capita. Some of this
went to chicken and cattle feed because the low prices made it
economical for farmers and households to substitute wheat for other
fodder.
The silver lining of this cloudy picture was the marked
improvement in the average Egyptian diet. Daily food consumption
increased from 2,307 calories per capita in the period 1961 to
1963, to 3,313 calories per capita from 1984 to 1986, and from 62.5
grams per capita of protein to 81.1 grams per capita over the same
period. These averages put the Egyptian diet directly below that of
developed countries. But not all segments of the population
benefited to the same extent. For example, a sample survey of 6,300
urban and rural families in FY 1981 found that the daily per capita
caloric intake was 1,500 for the lowest 17 percent and more than
3,500 for the highest 18 percent; the distribution of protein
intake was even more skewed. A 1986 study done for the United
Nations International Labour Organisation recommended that, to
avoid further deterioration of the diet of the poor, the prices of
basic staples should not be raised.
Data as of December 1990
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