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Nigeria Demographic Factors and the Defense Budget
The civil war and extended periods of military rule
created
conditions that sustained the military's rising claims on
national resources. There were few opponents of defense
spending,
given increasing national security challenges and
Nigeria's selfimage as regional leader and power broker. The main reason
for
the sharp rise in defense spending in the 1970s was the
large
postwar military establishment and the associated costs of
foreign arms procurement, military housing construction,
substantial salary increases, expansion of the officer
corps, and
the retirements and self-promotions after the 1975 coup.
During the civil war, Nigeria's armed forces, arms
imports,
and defense spending swelled, and military personnel
levels were
maintained at between 200,000 and 300,000 until the late
1970s.
Defense spending as a percentage of total federal spending
surged
from about 6 percent before the war to 43 percent in the
last
year of the conflict. It remained high--34 percent during
1970-71
and about 20 percent from 1971 to 1974--before beginning a
downward trend that continued through the 1980s. The 1970s
also
featured rapid economic expansion and budget growth driven
by oil
exports. As a result, absolute levels of military spending
rose
substantially during peacetime even though the level
declined
relative to available resources. According to some
analysts, such
"militarization" led to declining gross national product
(GNP-- see Glossary),
to increasing inflation, and to an
unfavorable
balance of trade
(see Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments
, ch.
3).
In comparative global terms, however, Nigeria's level
of
"militarization" was remarkably low and had been
decreasing since
the mid-1970s. According to a survey of 144 countries
compiled by
the United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency,
Nigeria's
ranking on five key measures of "militarization" declined
sharply
between 1975 and 1985. Nigeria's average global ranking on
indicators of "military buildup" (armed forces per 1,000
population and the ratios of military expenditure to GNP,
central
government expenditure, population, and armed forces) fell
from
47 in 1975, to 88 in 1980, and to 118 in 1985.
The steep downward trends in defense expenditure were
apparent across the board. Military spending plunged
precipitously from US$906 million to US$180 million (in
constant
1987 dollars) between 1977 and 1987--an astounding
reduction of
80 percent. Relative to GNP, military spending dropped
steadily
from 3.5 percent to less that 1 percent in 1987, while as
a
portion of total government expenditure it fell from more
than 14
percent to 2.7 percent in 1987. The value of arms imports
(measured in constant 1987 dollars) averaged US$93 million
annually between 1977 and 1980, surged to an average of
US$434
million annually between 1981 and 1984, dropped to about
US$340
million during 1985-86, and fell to US$60 million in 1987.
Likewise, the armed personnel numbers forces declined from
3.7
per 1,000 persons in 1977 to 1.3 in 1987.
Defense spending in 1988 and 1989 was about N1.3
billion and
N1.7 billion, but high inflation reduced its real value by
at
least 30 percent. Capital expenditure nominally trebled,
from
N256.6 million in 1986 and 1987 to N750 million in 1988
and 1989.
This increase reflected new investments in equipment,
construction, and other long-term capital improvements,
although
at levels substantially lower than in the early 1980s. The
N2.1
billion defense budget for 1990, however, represented a
real
growth of 16 percent over 1989.
As in most Third World states, Nigeria's military
spending
was dedicated largely to recurrent costs of salaries,
allowances,
training, and other personnel-related overhead expenses.
Such
operating costs ranged from 55 to 88 percent of the
defense
budget almost every year since independence. General Staff
Headquarters, which operated under a separate account
budgeted at
N35 to N55 million annually between 1984 and 1987,
received N124
million in 1988. The pattern of defense spending during
the
period 1988-90, particularly the increases in capital
investment
and equipment procurement relative to personnel-related
expenditures, reflected in part determined efforts to
modernize
and to upgrade capabilities and readiness while completing
demobilization. It also represented the military's last
opportunities to attend to defense needs on its own terms,
in
anticipation that the Third Republic might be less
generous in
allocating scarce budgetary and foreign exchange resources
to the
armed forces.
Data as of June 1991
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