North Korea INTRODUCTION
Figure 1. Administrative divisions of North Korea,
1992.
IN THE EARLY 1990s, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea
(DRPK, or North Korea) remained a vestige of the Cold War era. An
isolated, closed, and tightly controlled communist society, North
Korea was governed by a leadership that was only gradually
opening the country to the outside world--and was doing so, in
large part, only because its dire economic circumstances were
forcing the issue. Although China, the former Soviet Union, and
East European communist countries had undergone some degree of
political and economic change, North Korea remained virtually the
same as it had been for the more than four decades of its
existence.
Korea's division in 1945 along the thirty-eighth parallel was
originally intended as a temporary partition to facilitate the
surrender of Japanese forces on the Korean Peninsula at the end
of World War II. Superpower rivalry between the United States and
the Soviet Union, and continued occupation of the peninsula, gave
rise to the establishment of two hostile, competitive nations.
North Korea was formed under Soviet sponsorship in the northern
half of the peninsula. With the assistance of the United States,
the Republic of Korea (ROK, or South Korea) emerged in the
southern half. North Korea comprises approximately 55 percent of
the total land mass of the Korean Peninsula. Some 22 million
people live in the north, compared with about twice that number
in the south.
North Korea's attempt at reunification by military action in
1950 led to the Korean War (1950-53), known in North Korea as the
Fatherland Liberation War. Although North Korean troops initially
were successful on the battlefield, only the massive introduction
of the Chinese People's Volunteers into the conflict halted the
almost total destruction of North Korean forces by the United
States led-United Nations (UN) Command forces. The commanders of
the Chinese, North Korean, and UN Command troops signed an
armistice agreement in July 1953. Neither the United States nor
South Korea signed the agreement, but both countries have adhered
to it, and the armistice remained in force as of late 1993.
North Korean society revolves around the "religion of Kim Il
Sungism" and his
chuch'e (see Glossary)
ideology, North
Korea's own brand of Marxism-Leninism, national identity, and
self-reliance. Kim's "religion" and chuch'e have
supplanted Confucianism and other religious and philosophical
beliefs such as Daoism, Buddhism, Christianity, and
Ch'ndogyo (see Glossary).
Interestingly, some observers have suggested a
possible connection between Confucian strictures and the
transformation of North Korea into a society demanding loyalty to
Kim Il Sung, the country's paramount leader.
North Korea's social services are similar to those of other
socialist countries. Education is universal, free, and compulsory
for eleven years. Health care is provided by a national medical
service, and the country has a national health insurance system.
Both the education system and the centrally controlled media
stress social harmony. Contemporary cultural expression is also
driven--and controlled--by the Korean Workers' Party (KWP) and
the state.
In the beginning of its regime, North Korea was distinguished
by its successes in agricultural growth rates and yields. This
record, however, has not been duplicated in terms of growth and
yield since then. There were reports of food shortages (leading
to rioting and the imposition of food rationing) in the early
1990s, but the shortfalls were as much attributable to poor
weather conditions and distribution problems as inherent problems
in the agricultural sector.
North Korea's efforts at industrialization have not been very
successful. Although the country initially achieved some success
in industrialization, the overall record is grim. A portrait
emerges of a centrally controlled economy in decline: resources
are inequitably allocated, production is hindered by lack of
energy and modern technology, shortages of energy and oil have
resulted in production declines, and labor productivity is low.
Low productivity stems, in part, from obsolescent plants fitted
with broken-down equipment, few spare parts, and lack of the
technical expertise needed to fix equipment. Further complicating
matters, heavy demands for electricity necessitate its production
on a staggered schedule in order to maximize its effective use.
In addition, the development of key industries is linked to
increased electrical production and the construction of power
plants. Calls for greater electric power production are common
(plants are idled because of cutbacks in power).
In the early years of the regime, the government stressed
heavy industry and accorded consumer goods and light industries
second priority. Since the late 1970s, however, economic planners
have paid more attention to light industry. And, in the early
1990s, some planners even advised operating light industry plants
on a full schedule, thereby increasing the production of people's
daily necessities. Nonetheless, heavy industry--particularly
defense needs--has remained a focus of central planning and a
drain on the economy. The military's hold on scarce resources--
and the priority of the military over other sectors--adds to the
large demands for resources and has further undermined economic
efficiency. North Korea has repeatedly failed to achieve economic
goals and production schedules. In the past, Soviet and Chinese
aid permitted some production targets to be met within specified
time allotments, but others had to be sacrificed.
North Korea's poor record of debt repayment and its bad
credit rating severely limit its ability to engage in
international trade. Further, it has little to sell abroad. The
demands made by China and Russia that North Korea pay hard
currency for purchases exacerbate the situation. The country's
trade problems are also compounded by the layers of economic
sanctions the United States has placed on North Korea.
North Korea is not known for releasing statistical (or other)
information, and its revelations about its economy are offered in
vague terms. For example, at the fifth session of the Ninth
Supreme People's Assembly held in April 1993, the Third Seven-
Year Plan (1987-93) was not even mentioned in discussions on the
state budget. North Korea does not usually discuss increases and
decreases in terms of real figures, but provides them as
percentages.
In early 1993, a spate of articles from Russian sources,
published in the South Korean and Japanese press, detailed North
Korea's economic woes. In March 1993, East European and Russian
diplomats stationed in P'yongyang, North Korea's capital,
revealed that North Korea's gross national product
(GNP--see Glossary)
may have declined as much as 7 to 10 percent. Russians
and East European observers attributed the economic decline to
failures in the mining industry, which accounts for approximately
40 percent of GNP. Estimates for declines in the production of
iron, steel, and cement and in oil refining also are significant.
Agriculture presents a mixed picture: rice production continued a
decline that began in 1990, but corn and cabbage production
apparently has increased. Meanwhile, critical shortages of raw
materials and fuel mean that factories operate at far less than
capacity. The garment industry is the only area of increased
economic activity.
Some analysts have theorized that North Korea's economic
problems will ultimately force it to open somewhat to the outside
world. Some observers viewed the leadership changes announced at
a December 1992 session of the Supreme People's Assembly as aimed
at promoting advocates of economic reform and an opening to the
outside world. Others argue, however, that the leaders of North
Korea fear that economic reform and an opening to the outside
world could erode the foundation of the totalitarian state.
Political unrest and disarray similar to that experienced in the
former communist nations could lead to the collapse of the regime
in P'yongyang.
Survival of the current regime remains North Korea's foremost
priority. Since its founding, the country has been ruled by a
single person, Kim Il Sung, in an extremely rigid system. A
guerrilla leader active in the resistance against Japan before
World War II, Kim became head of state in September 1948. Over
the years, a cult of personality has grown up around him. In
1993, at age eighty-one, he continued to dominate the political
scene and was the long-standing general secretary of the KWP
Secretariat and president of the government. He turned over the
chairmanship of the National Defense Commission to his son and
designated successor, Kim Jong Il, in April 1993 as part of the
process of grooming and positioning his political heir. In his
position as president, Kim Il Sung had also previously controlled
the military; he appointed his son supreme commander, or
wnsu, of the army in 1992. Like Kim Il Sung, key leaders
hold multiple offices: party, state, and military. The death of
the elder Kim may destabilize the political situation as
contending forces vie for power and Kim Jong Il attempts to
assert control.
Chuch'e ideology is also a dominant force in North
Korea. On November 23, 1993, the South Korean government released
the text of the revised 1972 North Korean constitution, which had
been approved, but had not been made public, by the Ninth Supreme
People's Assembly on April 9, 1992. The revised constitution
substitutes chuch'e for Marxism-Leninism as a guiding
principle of politics; changes the term of office for members of
the Supreme People's Assembly and its Standing Committee from
four years to five; and extends by a year the terms of office for
the president, Central People's Committee, National Defense
Commission, Central Court, and Central Procurator's Office.
The end of the Cold War and the resulting changes in the
communist world--the breakup of the former Soviet Union and the
East European communist countries--have presented challenges both
to P'yongyang and to its allies. Not the least of these
challenges has been their dealings with and diplomatic
recognition of South Korea. The Soviet Union and South Korea
established diplomatic relations in September 1990; China and
South Korea opened trade offices (with consular functions) in
1991 and established diplomatic relations in August 1992. The
success of South Korea's
Nordpolitik (see Glossary) further
contributed to the isolation of North Korea. In particular,
Seoul's establishment of diplomatic relations with Moscow and its
considerable trade with Beijing--more important than its trade
with P'yongyang--have meant that North Korea has lost the ability
to play the two communist giants off against one another. For
China and Russia, the economic advantages of a relationship with
South Korea mitigate the effects of a lesser relationship with
North Korea.
Normalization of relations with Japan remains a contentious
issue. North Korea expects compensation for the period of
colonial rule and wants hard currency, investment capital, and
technology. North Korea also wants Japan to respect the three-
party joint declaration issued by Japan's Liberal Democratic
Party and Social Democratic Party and by North Korea's KWP. In
addition, it wants Japan to respect North Korea's independent
position and apologize for its past deeds. Japan's pressure on
the nuclear issue will likely deter an early resumption of
negotiations.
Although North Korea has sought reunification of the
peninsula on its own terms through the judicious use of force,
subversion, or even peaceful political means, efforts at inter-
Korean reconciliation through dialogue began in the early 1970s
and continued in the early 1990s. The admission of the two Koreas
into the UN in September 1991 marked a turning point in
P'yongyang's inter-Korean policy, despite the fact that the two
countries remain committed to unification according to their own
programs. Although seated alongside South Korea, North Korea has
said it would continue to pursue a "one-Korea policy." Both sides
continue their political maneuvering. The signing of the historic
December 13, 1991, Agreement on Reconciliation, Nonaggression,
Exchanges, and Cooperation, and the Declaration on the
Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, both of which became
effective in February 1992, marked another turning point in
inter-Korean relations. The former agreement is sometimes
referred to as the North-South Basic Agreement, the latter as the
Joint Denuclearization Declaration.
On February 28, 1993, North Korea issued another three-part
memorandum on reunification. Three conditions were cited in order
for "peace . . . to be guaranteed and the reunification process
be continuously promoted on the Korean peninsula." First, the
United States and South Korea must end their annual Team Spirit
exercises. Second, South Korea must "take the road of national
reunification on the principle of national independence." Third,
the United States must renounce its Korean policy, which
originated during the Cold War.
North Korea's Ten-Point Program of Great Unity of the Whole
Nation for Reunification of the Country was presented at the
April 1993 session of the Supreme People's Assembly. This
program, adopted with the approval of all Supreme People's
Assembly deputies, urged an "end to the national division."
North Korea also affirmed its continued interest in holding
dialogue with South Korea and somewhat softened its standard
demands. For example, the usual demand for the withdrawal of
United States troops from the Korean Peninsula was recast and now
echoed South Korea's expression of a "will to have US forces
withdrawn from South Korea."
In May 1993, Kang Song-san, premier of the State
Administration Council, sent a proposal to South Korea that the
two sides exchange special envoys--"deputy prime minister-level
officials fully in charge of reunification affairs, and the
sooner the exchange of their visits, the better." Kang viewed
this exchange as opening a new phase in implementing the North-
South Basic Agreement and the Joint Denuclearization Declaration
and as a way to move forward on the issue of reunification. Kang
appealed to South Korea to recognize the importance of "national
interest" and to grasp "the opportunity for the North and South
to jointly open a bright future for the nation."
The legacy of mutual suspicion continues, however. North
Korea maintains that inter-Korean barriers could be dismantled
and mutual cooperation ensured once both sides end their arms
race and bring about mutual and balanced force reduction. South
Korea insists that dialogue should address nonpolitical questions
until the two countries have developed mutual trust. Political
issues influence all aspects of contact, however.
North Korea's apparent program to develop the ability to
produce nuclear weapons has greatly complicated its relations
with all nations. In December 1991, after years of secretly
working to develop the means to produce plutonium, North Korea
and South Korea signed the Joint Denuclearization Declaration. In
this document, North Korea publicly pledged it would not develop,
purchase, or otherwise seek to obtain nuclear weapons, nor the
means to reprocess plutonium. In early 1992, North Korea finally
signed a nuclear safeguards agreement with the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This agreement enabled the IAEA to
inspect the major facilities at North Korea's main nuclear
installation, Yngbyn.
IAEA inspections revealed discrepancies between North Korea's
claims about the amount of plutonium it had produced and the
amount suggested by technical data developed during the
inspections. To resolve these discrepancies, the IAEA sought to
collect samples at two nuclear waste sites, which North Korea had
tried to mask as rice paddies. When repeated diplomatic efforts
failed to gain the desired access, the IAEA director general made
a call for "special" inspections as provided for in the
safeguards agreement between the IAEA and North Korea.
Parallel to these developments, North Korea's eighteen-month-
long dialogue with Seoul ground to a halt in the winter of 1992.
The first signs of renewed friction had appeared in October 1992,
when Seoul's internal security agency, the National Security
Planning Agency, announced that it had uncovered an extensive
North Korean spy ring. Also in October 1992, at the annual United
States-South Korea Security Consultative Meeting, it was decided
to resume preparations for Team Spirit, the two countries' annual
joint defensive exercise that had been suspended in early 1992 in
recognition of North Korea's signing of the Joint
Denuclearization Declaration. It was noted, however, that the
1993 exercise would not be held if there were significant
progress in the South-North dialogue, particularly concerning
formulation of a South-North nuclear inspection regime. North
Korea pointed to these developments as it disengaged from all
meetings with Seoul except for those focused on implemention of
the denuclearization accord in the Joint Nuclear Control
Committee (JNCC). But JNCC talks were discontinued in late
January 1993 when the United States and South Korea announced
they would conduct Team Spirit 1993.
By February 1993, all South-North dialogue had stalled, Team
Spirit 1993 was about to begin, and the IAEA had yet to gain
access to the two suspected North Korean nuclear waste sites at
Yngbyn. The IAEA Board of Governors served notice to North
Korea on February 25 that if it did not cooperate with the IAEA's
director general and allow access to the suspected sites, the
board would find North Korea in noncompliance with its
obligations under its safeguards agreement with the IAEA and
would report the situation to the UN Security Council.
North Korea reacted on March 12 by announcing its intention
to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT); it
would be the first nation ever to do so. A ninety-day grace
period would have to run its course before the withdrawal became
effective.
There was an immediate, worldwide outcry. The more than 100
members of the NPT urged North Korea to reconsider its decision
to withdraw. The IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution at
the end of March that found North Korea in noncompliance with its
safeguards obligations and referred the matter to the UN Security
Council. The global condemnation of North Korea climaxed on May
11 when the Security Council passed, with China and Pakistan
abstaining, Resolution S/25768, which urged North Korea to comply
with the IAEA director general's requests for "special"
inspections at the two suspected nuclear waste sites. The
resolution expressed full support for the IAEA, asked that North
Korea remain a member of the NPT, and called on UN members to
assist in seeking a solution to the impasse.
The United States subsequently agreed to engage North Korea
in the first ever bilateral talks. At the first round of talks
held in New York in June, the two countries issued a joint
statement in which they noted that "the two sides discussed
policy-related issues raised for fundamentally resolving the
nuclear issue of the Korean Peninsula, and expressed support of
the Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
in accordance with the purpose for preventing nuclear
proliferation." North Korea stated that it had "decided to
unilaterally and temporarily suspend the effectuation of the
withdrawal from the NPT as long as it considers necessary." A
second round of talks in Geneva produced some additional progress
toward a resolution of the nuclear issue. The United States
promised that as part of a final resolution of the nuclear issue,
it would be willing to consider assisting North Korea in its
desire to acquire light-water reactor technology.
P'yongyang promised that it would maintain continuity of
safeguards, which requires IAEA inspection of its nuclear
facilities, and indicated that it would consult with the IAEA
about outstanding safeguards issues and resume serious dialogue
with Seoul prior to a third round of talks with Washington.
As of late 1993, however, North Korea remained reluctant to
allow the scope of inspection that the IAEA deems necessary to
maintain the continuity of safeguards. Further, North Korea had
yet to agree to resume its dialogue with South Korea.
Consequently, the United States was refusing to agree to a third
round of talks with North Korea. In short, the talks appeared
close to being broken off, despite the willingness of the United
States to suspend Team Spirit 1994 and to ultimately consider
improving diplomatic and economic ties with P'yongyang in
exchange for its remaining a member of the NPT, complying fully
with the IAEA, and agreeing to the implementation of the Joint
Denuclearization Declaration.
The future of the Korean Peninsula is far from resolved.
Although there has been progress in inter-Korean relations, much
remains to be worked out. The costs of reunification are high,
both economically and politically. Analysts have noted that some
South Korean government officials believe that North Korea has
designated 1995 as the year for reunification and is accelerating
its war preparations. Much of the current increased posturing by
North Korea--particularly its nuclear stance--may be related to
this issue. The only certainty is that the situation is far from
closure.
December 16, 1993
* * *
The chronology of events since the Introduction was written
shows little progress in inter-Korean relations, United States-
North Korea relations, or full compliance by North Korea with
IAEA nuclear inspection. The situation remains uncertain.
Desirous of diplomatic recognition and economic aid from the
United States--the latter also from its neighbors--P'yongyang, in
the view of some observers, has used the "nuclear card" as a
strategy to exact concessions from Washington but is also
determined to continue its military program and develop a
powerful nuclear arsenal. The United States Central Intelligence
Agency suspects that North Korea already possesses two nuclear
bombs and may have the potential to develop four to five more
weapons.
In March 1994, almost one year after nuclear inspections were
halted in North Korea, visas were issued to two teams of IAEA
inspectors for access to seven of the nine nuclear facilities
they sought to examine as part of the inspection process.
Subsequently, the United States announced that a third round of
high-level talks with North Korea on diplomatic and economic
matters would be resumed in Geneva on March 21. The United States
and South Korea agreed to conditionally suspend--pending North
Korea's holding of nuclear inspections--their annual Team Spirit
exercise scheduled for late March. For its part, North Korea also
agreed to resume talks with South Korea. In early March, a broken
seal was discovered at the Yngbyn nuclear reprocessing
facility, a site where the surveillance cameras have been without
operating batteries since October 1993. On March 16, the third
round of talks between the United States and North Korea was
canceled because of P'yongyang's refusal to allow a complete IAEA
inspection. On March 21, President Clinton ordered a battalion of
Patriot missile interceptors shipped to South Korea. That same
day, the nine-member IAEA board (with China abstaining) passed a
resolution asking North Korea "immediately to allow the IAEA to
complete all requested inspection activities" and to "comply
fully with its safeguards agreement."
On March 31, 1994, the UN Security Council issued a formal
statement calling on North Korea to allow the IAEA full and
complete inspection of all North Korean nuclear sites. (The
United States, with the support of Britain, France, and Russia,
had wanted to issue a UN resolution--which carries the weight of
international law--on the matter, but China opposed such a
stance.) The statement proposed a six-week deadline for the IAEA
to report on whether or not inspections had been completed and
whether or not North Korea was in compliance with international
nuclear safeguards. A few days later, North Korea rejected the
demand to comply with full inspections as "unjustifiable."
The stalemate continued in April. By mid-April Kim Il Sung
had announced that the United States must abide by its pledge to
proceed with high-level talks without preconditions. Moreover,
Kim denied that North Korea has been--or is--developing nuclear
weapons. On April 18, United States Navy ships began offloading
Patriot missiles in South Korea.
There was no resolution to the situation in May. On May 19,
the IAEA condemned North Korea for "serious violation" of the
nuclear inspection program. At issue was the marking, or
segregation, of certain critical withdrawn uranium fuel rods for
eventual sampling to determine how much plutonium had been
accumulated. If the IAEA cannot properly monitor, that is,
sample, the withdrawn fuel rods, the agency cannot verify whether
or not fuel has been diverted for use in nuclear weapons. (By
measuring the radioactive fuel content of rods, scientists can
determine the amount of plutonium that has been accumulated for
nuclear weapons. Uranium fuel rods are replaced every few years.
North Korea has said that the present rods are the original rods
that were placed in 1986 and that they are almost spent,
necessitating their replacement. The United States suspects that
many of these fuel rods were secretly replaced in 1989 when the
reactor was shut down for 100 days and that the removed fuel rods
were ultimately reprocessed for use in nuclear weapons.)
After failing to conduct complete inspections in March, the
two IAEA teams were again sent to North Korea in May to conduct
nuclear inspections. Their efforts were again stymied.
Complications were introduced when North Korea told the
inspectors that they could observe the removal of fuel rods but
that they could not test the rods. They were also informed that
rods would not be set aside for future measurements and that IAEA
inspectors could neither visit two nuclear waste sites nor
complete the inspections at the plutonium reprocessing plant at
Yngbyn. In response, the IAEA demanded an immediate stop to the
withdrawal of fuel rods. In May, one IAEA team confirmed that
North Korea had withdrawn approximately 4,000 spent fuel rods out
of an estimated 8,000 rods in late May. The IAEA wanted 300
critical rods that constitute the core fuel element set aside for
sampling.
By late May, the United States had warned that it would
cancel new high-level talks if North Korea did not comply with
IAEA demands and that it would press for international economic
sanctions. North Korea has continued to reject the complete
inspection program, claiming that it has a "unique status"--
attained in March 1993--when it threatened to withdraw from the
NPT but then suspended its threats under United States pressure.
North Korea has said that it will never allow the IAEA to mark
and sample the rods even if threatened with economic sanctions
under a UN resolution. On May 30, Britain, China, France, Russia,
and the United States issued a statement urging North Korea to
set aside fuel rods for future sampling. The following day, the
IAEA telexed North Korea either to halt the withdrawal of fuel
rods or to follow acceptable procedures for storing the rods
under international supervision.
Also in late May, Japanese press reports, confirmed by United
States officials, noted that North Korea appeared to be preparing
for testing a new short-range ballistic missile within the next
few weeks. Such a missile would be capable of reaching much of
Japan. Department of Defense officials said that on May 31 North
Korea tested a cruise missile in the Sea of Japan designed to hit
ships at a range of more than 160 kilometers.
In early June, the uncertainty of the situation on the
peninsula continued. On June 2, Hans Blix, director general of
the IAEA, sent a letter to the secretary general of the UN
stating that the IAEA was unable to "select, segregate and secure
fuel rods for later measurements in accordance with agency
standards" and that it could not determine the amount of
plutonium that "has been diverted in the past." He subsequently
announced that all but 1,800 of the 8,000 rods--including the 300
critical rods--had been removed and stored in such a way that the
IAEA would be unable to determine their location in the reactor.
The letter automatically placed the issue of sanctions on the UN
Security Council agenda.
As of early June, United States had not yet decided on the
level of sanctions it will seek. It also faces the difficulty of
getting the full council membership--particularly China but also
Russia--to agree to impose sanctions against North Korea. The
action of the United States in extending most-favored-nation
status to China in late May has been viewed as a means of
appealing to China to either agree to economic sanctions or to
use its leverage with North Korea to oblige it to comply with
IAEA requests. And, the level of sanctions Japan is willing to
impose also remained questionable. What remains certain is that
the United States, China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea publicly
want North Korea to comply with the nuclear inspection program,
but they differ in their views on the level, the efficacy, and
the timing of such sanctions.
Further complicating matters, North Korea has again
threatened to withdraw from the NPT, stating that sanctions would
violate the 1953 armistice agreement and be considered an act of
war. Secretary of Defense William Perry has said that the United
States will bolster its troops in South Korea and will defend
that country if invaded by North Korea.
In mid-June the nuclear inspections issue continued to
dominate events on the Korean Peninsula. The United States effort
to garner support for the imposition of economic sanctions on
North Korea was halted, however, as a result of events following
the visit of former United States president Jimmy Carter to North
Korea on June 15-18 and his meetings with Kim Il Sung. The United
States agreed to resume its high-level talks (suspended for over
a year) with North Korea in Geneva on July 8. In exchange, North
Korea agreed to "freeze" its nuclear program: to allow IAEA
inspectors to remain at Yngbyn, to halt reprocessing, and to
stop reloading the reactor. However, this position is a short-
term one. P'yongyang's long-term position on the nuclear issue
will likely be contingent on the progress of the talks in Geneva.
During President Carter's visit, Kim Il Sung proposed a
summit meeting between the leaders of North Korea and South
Korea. On June 28, North Korea and South Korea agreed to hold
such a meeting--the first since the division of the peninsula--on
July 25-27 in P'yongyang. The agenda, however, was not discussed;
a second, reciprocal meeting--likely to be held in Seoul--will be
part of the agenda at the first meeting.
As of late June, the United States was considering a range of
economic and diplomatic incentives in exchange for a freeze on
North Korea's nuclear weapons program but planning for other
contingencies. The United States Navy is sending two minesweepers
and an amphibious vessel to Japan as a "purely defensive" measure
in order to reinforce the United States military presence on the
Korean Peninsula. The ships are scheduled to arrive by the end of
July.
The talks in Geneva will likely be a forum for discussing the
nuclear issue in a larger context. The dynamics of the situation
will change, determined by the direction and progress, or lack
thereof, of the talks.
* * *
The uncertainty of the situation on the Korean Peninsula
continued with the sudden, unexpected death of Kim Il Sung of an
alleged heart attack "owing to heavy mental strains." As a result
of Kim's death on July 8, which was also the first day of talks
in Geneva between the United States and North Korea, it was
announced that subsequent talks between the two countries had
been suspended, and that the summit talks between North Korea and
South Korea scheduled for late July in P'yongyang had been
postponed indefinitely. P'yongyang announced, however, that it
would resume discussions on the nuclear weapons issue after Kim's
funeral, and on July 20, the United States announced that these
talks were expected to resume within a few weeks. On July 16,
Kim's funeral was postponed for two days, causing some
speculation among Korea watchers as to whether Kim Jong Il's so
far seemingly orderly succession was meeting resistance. For the
short term, it is expected that Kim Jong Il will be able to
assume the positions for which he has been groomed without overt
resistance; his long-term success remains open to question. The
constitution makes no provisions for succession; as of this
writing, Kim has not been formally proclaimed either president of
state or general secretary of the party.
June 29, 1994
Andrea Matles Savada
Data as of June 1993
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