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Vietnam Labor
The Vietnamese labor force in mid-1985 was estimated at 31.2
million, having increased at the rate of 3.5 to 4 percent
annually between 1981 and mid-1985. A 1987 Vietnamese estimate
put unemployment at more than 20 percent. More than half of the
work force was committed to agriculture; however, observers
estimated that the unemployment level in the agricultural sector
was very low because agricultural workers were more likely to be
underemployed than unemployed. In contrast, the unemployment rate
in the nonagricultural sector may have exceeded 40 percent,
meaning that more than 2 out of every 5 Vietnamese workers were
jobless. A similar calculation for the nonagricultural sector in
1981 yielded an estimate of 20 percent, or 1 out of 5.
Unemployment was particularly concentrated among younger
workers living in urban areas. According to Vietnamese government
statistics, of the 7 million persons who entered the work force
between 1981 and 1985, about 33 percent lived in urban areas, and
only 15 to 20 percent reportedly had found jobs. The actual ratio
of jobs to unemployed people may not have been as grim as
statistics indicate, however. According to some observers, the
high rate of inflation during the period forced many people,
especially state workers, to take a second job in order to make
ends meet.
Vietnam's economic prospects for the late 1980s and early
1990s depended on resolving population and labor problems.
Government population projections in 1987 showed that the gender
imbalance, with females more numerous, probably would persist
through the end of the century. National security concerns were
unlikely to diminish, and the armed forces were expected to
continue their high demand for males of service age. A similar
demand also was expected to continue in the sectors and
occupations in which males were employed during the 1980s:
agriculture, fishing, mining, metallurgy, machine building,
construction, and transportation. Female workers probably would
remain concentrated in subsistence agriculture, light industry,
and, perhaps, forestry. Education, training programs, and the
wage structure were expected to continue to favor males and
male-dominated occupations, while the absence of these incentives
would cause productivity gains in female-intensive industries to
remain low.
Economic recovery policies that emphasized austerity and
postponed industrialization were unlikely to create sufficient
new employment opportunities. In the short run, the government's
discharge of surplus state employees during the mid-1980s in
order to curb expenditures would tend to increase unemployment.
The stress on boosting production in light industry was expected
eventually to reduce unemployment, but only if expansion were
supported with state investment and bank credit. The coincident
removal of restraints on the labor-intensive informal economy,
which was uncontrolled by the state, and the likely influx of
labor into this sector could then be expected to expand the
informal economy relative to the official economy.
Data as of December 1987
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