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Zaire PROSPECTS FOR GROWTH
Zaire's ability to achieve long-term economic
development and
growth depends in large measure on the willingness of the
government to resolve decisively the conflict between
authoritarian
patrimonialism and democracy. Patrimonialism has led
inexorably to
widespread corruption, economic mismanagement and
miscalculation,
and chronic borrowing.
Resolution of this conflict is considered vital to
removing
Zaire's primary economic constraints: a heavy external
debt burden,
which has grown as a result of repeated reschedulings at
market
interest rates; dependence on primary commodity
exports--copper,
coffee, cobalt, and diamonds--that have poor market price
prospects
and are in any case subject to severe price fluctuations;
an
outdated and deteriorating transportation and
communication
infrastructure; and a badly neglected rural sector. In
order to
resolve its chronic economic problems and move toward
sustained
growth, Zaire would need to generate confidence in its
institutions
and to mobilize and invest substantial additional
resources, both
domestic and foreign. Observers increasingly believe that
such
changes will not be possible so long as the Mobutu regime
remains
in power. Thus, democratic change is the key to economic
development.
* * *
The writings of Thomas M. Callaghy, Thomas E. Turner,
and
Crawford Young continue to provide the most insightful
analyses of
the Zairian state. For analysis focused more directly on
the
economy, see David Gould's Bureaucratic Corruption and
Underdevelopment in the Third World: The Case of
Zaire;
Zaire: The Political Economy of Underdevelopment,
edited by
Guy Gran; and Gregory Kronsten's Zaire to the 1990s:
Will
Retrenchment Work?. Janet MacGaffey's The Real
Economy of
Zaire provides an insightful analysis of Zaire's
vibrant
unofficial economy. The Economist Intelligence Unit's
quarterly
Country Report: Zaire, Rwanda, Burundi and annual
Country
Profile: Zaire, Rwanda, Burundi are the best sources
for
current economic and political trends and up-to-date
statistical
information. The annual Africa South of the Sahara
also
provides information on current economic developments in
Zaire, as
well as a statistical survey.
Data on various sectors of the economy are provided in
specialized publications such as the United States
Department of
the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Mineral Perspectives:
Zaire;
Jean-Claude Willame's L'Épopée d'Inga; and the
International Petroleum Encyclopedia. (For further
information and complete citations,
see
Bibliography.)
Data as of December 1993
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