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China Mortality and Fertility
In 1949 crude death rates were probably higher than 30 per
1,000, and the average life expectancy was only 32 years. Beginning
in the early 1950s, mortality steadily declined; it continued to
decline through 1978 and remained relatively constant through 1987.
One major fluctuation was reported in a computer reconstruction of
China's population trends from 1953 to 1987 produced by the United
States Bureau of the Census (see
table 6, Appendix A; data in this
table may vary from officially reported statistics). The computer
model showed that the crude death rate increased dramatically
during the famine years associated with the
Great Leap Forward
(1958-60, see Glossary), resulting in approximately 30 million
deaths above the expected level.
According to Chinese government statistics, the crude birth
rate followed five distinct patterns from 1949 to 1982. It remained
stable from 1949 to 1954, varied widely from 1955 to 1965,
experienced fluctuations between 1966 and 1969, dropped sharply in
the late 1970s, and increased from 1980 to 1981. Between 1970 and
1980, the crude birth rate dropped from 36.9 per 1,000 to 17.6 per
1,000. The government attributed this dramatic decline in fertility
to the wan xi shao (later marriages, longer intervals
between births, and fewer children) birth control campaign.
However, elements of socioeconomic change, such as increased
employment of women in both urban and rural areas and reduced
infant mortality (a greater percentage of surviving children would
tend to reduce demand for additional children), may have played
some role
(see Labor Force
, this ch.). To the dismay of
authorities, the birth rate increased in both 1981 and 1982 to a
level of 21 per 1,000, primarily as a result of a marked rise in
marriages and first births. The rise was an indication of problems
with the one-child policy of 1979
(see Population Control Programs
, this ch.). Chinese sources, however, indicated that the birth rate
decreased to 17.8 in 1985 and remained relatively constant
thereafter.
In urban areas, the housing shortage may have been at least
partly responsible for the decreased birth rate. Also, the policy
in force during most of the 1960s and the early 1970s of sending
large numbers of high school graduates to the countryside deprived
cities of a significant proportion of persons of childbearing age
and undoubtedly had some effect on birth rates
(see The Cultural Revolution Decade, 1966-76
, ch. 1).
Primarily for economic reasons, rural birth rates tended to
decline less than urban rates. The right to grow and sell
agricultural products for personal profit and the lack of an oldage welfare system were incentives for rural people to produce many
children, especially sons, for help in the fields and for support
in old age. Because of these conditions, it is unclear to what
degree propaganda and education improvements had been able to erode
traditional values favoring large families.
Data as of July 1987
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