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Nigeria Census History
Although numerous estimates of the Nigerian population
were
made during the colonial period, the first attempt at a
nationwide census was during 1952-53. This attempt yielded
a
total population figure of 31.6 million within the current
boundaries of the country. This census has usually been
considered an undercount for a number of reasons:
apprehension
that the census was related to tax collection; political
tension
at the time in eastern Nigeria; logistical difficulties in
reaching many remote areas; and inadequate training of
enumerators in some areas. The extent of undercounting has
been
estimated at 10 percent or less, although accuracy
probably
varied among the regions. Despite its difficulties, the
1952-53
census has generally been seen as less problematic than
any of
its successors.
Subsequent attempts to conduct a reliable
postindependence
census have been mired in controversy, and only one was
officially accepted. The first attempt, in mid-1962, was
canceled
after much controversy and allegations of overcounting in
many
areas. A second attempt in 1963, which was officially
accepted,
also was encumbered with charges of inaccuracy and
manipulation
for regional and local political purposes. Indeed, the
official
1963 figure of 55.6 million as total national population
is
inconsistent with the census of a decade earlier because
it
implies a virtually impossible annual growth rate of 5.8
percent.
In addition to likely inflation of the aggregate figure,
significant intraregional anomalies emerge from a close
comparison of the 1953 and 1963 figures. In portions of
the
southeast, for example, the two sets of data imply that
some
nonurban local government areas (LGAs) had increased at a
rate of
almost 13 percent per year, while other neighboring areas
experienced a minute growth rate of 0.5 percent per year.
Despite
the controversy, the results of the 1963 census were
eventually
accepted.
After the civil war of 1967-70, an attempt was made to
hold a
census in 1973, but the results were canceled in the face
of
repeated controversy. No subsequent nationwide census had
been
held as of 1990, although there have been various attempts
to
derive population estimates at a state or local level.
Most
official national population estimates are based on
projections
from the 1963 census.
The great improvements in transport and accessibility
of most
areas, in technological capability, and in the level of
education
throughout the country, as well as the generalized
acceptance of
national coherence and legitimacy, favored the success of
the
fall 1991 census. It was to be conducted in about 250,000
enumeration areas by the National Population Commission,
with
offices in each of the country's LGAs. To reduce possible
controversy, religious and ethnic identification would be
excluded from the census forms, and verification of state
results
would be handled by supervisors from outside the state.
Some
analysts believe that the effort to carry out a reliable
census
with perceived legitimacy might become an unexpectedly
positive
exercise, reinforcing a sense of shared nationhood and
providing
a model for the attempt to overcome regional and ethnic
differences.
Data as of June 1991
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