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Nigeria Population Estimates and the Demographic Transition
The absence of virtually any reliable current
demographic
data has not prevented national and international bodies
from
generating estimates and projections of population and
population
growth in Nigeria. The
World Bank (see Glossary)
estimate of
Nigeria's 1990 population was 119 million, with an
estimated
annual growth rate of 3.3 percent. Although other sources
differed on the exact figure, virtually all sources agreed
that
the annual rate of population growth in the country had
increased
from the 1950s through most of the 1980s. The government
estimated a 2 percent rate of population growth for most
of the
country between 1953 and 1962. For the period between 1965
and
1973, the World Bank estimated Nigeria's growth rate at
2.5
percent, increasing to 2.7 percent between 1973 and 1983.
Projections about the population growth rate were
uncertain,
however, in view of questions concerning the accuracy of
Nigerian
census statistics.
This increase was typical of most of sub-Saharan
Africa,
where growth rates increased steadily throughout the
post-World
War II period. The key to decelerating the rate of
population
growth would be a sharp decline in the fertility rate,
which is
defined as the average number of children a woman will
bear in
her lifetime. Considered the second stage of the
demographic
transition process, it was well under way in 1990 in most
other
developing regions of the world, except for the Islamic
nations
of the Middle East. Few African countries, however, had
experienced any substantial fertility decline, and the
overall
fertility rate for sub-Saharan Africa was estimated as 6.5
in
1983.
Any decline in the population growth rate in Nigeria or
the
rest of sub-Saharan Africa was expected to depend on the
balance
between the demand for smaller families and the supply of
birth
control technology. Urbanization (especially when full
households, rather than just males, are involved) was
likely to
be the most powerful factor leading to a decline in
fertility,
because it induced the most radical shifts in the relative
costs
and benefits of having large numbers of children. Other
important
factors were likely to include the availability of health
care
and of birth control information and equipment in both
rural and
urban areas, the rate of expansion of education, and the
general
pace of economic development. If the pattern of change in
Africa
were to follow that in other parts of the world,
urbanization,
economic development, education, improved health care,
increased
availability of birth control, and declining infant
mortality
would eventually lead to a marked decline in fertility
rates.
Between 1970 and 1987, life expectancy in Nigeria was
estimated to have increased from forty to fifty-one years.
Much
of this rise resulted from a sharp decline in mortality
among
infants younger than one year and children ages one to
four.
Infant mortality was estimated to have declined 25 percent
from
152 per 1,000 live births in 1965 to 113 in 1983, while
child
mortality declined almost 50 percent from 33 to 17 per
1,000 in
the same period. These levels were likely to continue to
fall,
thereby exerting continuing upward pressure on the
population
growth rate. As of 1990, maternity deaths exceeded 75,000
per
year, excluding deaths resulting from illegal abortions,
and both
were estimated to have risen during the 1980s.
Despite the probable decline in fertility in the 1990s,
given
the country's age structure, Nigeria's 1990 population was
expected at least to double before the middle of the next
century. Somewhat less than half of Nigeria's 1990
population was
younger than fifteen. As a result, even if population
growth were
to drop immediately to a replacement rate and remain
there, the
1990 population would double before stabilizing. Nigeria,
thus,
could expect to deal with a population of more than 200
million
probably within the next twenty-five years.
These projections suggested that population growth
would be
an issue of central concern for Nigeria for some time to
come.
Merely to remain at current per capita levels,
agricultural
production, industrial and other economic output, and
provision
of health and other social services would all need to
double
within twenty-five years. This situation was a challenge
of
historic proportions for Nigeria, one faced by many other
nations
of Africa.
Data as of June 1991
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