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North Korea China and the Soviet Union
North Korea owes its survival as a separate political entity
to China and the Soviet Union. Both countries provided critical
military assistance--soldiers and matériel--during the Korean
War. From that time and until the early 1990s, China and the
Soviet Union both provided North Korea with its most important
markets and were its major suppliers of oil and other basic
necessities. In turn, China and the Soviet Union were reliable
pillars of diplomatic support. The demise of the Soviet Union and
the former communist bloc in Eastern Europe, combined with the
gradually warming relationship between Beijing and Seoul--which
resulted in the establishment of diplomatic relations in August
1992--significantly altered P'yongyang's ties with Beijing and
Moscow.
More out of economic necessity than ideological
compatibility, North Korea sought to maintain good relations with
China, despite the latter's increasingly close economic and
diplomatic ties with South Korea. In October 1991, Kim Il Sung
visited China for ten days, reportedly to ask for economic and
military assistance, and to persuade Beijing not to establish
diplomatic ties with Seoul. Predictably, North Korea and China
reaffirmed their commitment to socialism, but at the time China
did not express clear signals for North Korea's other agenda.
Close Sino-North Korean ties continue, but Beijing is
striving to maintain a balance in its relationship with the two
Koreas, a far cry from its previous four decades of dealing
solely with P'yongyang. China welcomed the Declaration on the
Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, making clear its
preference for a non-nuclear Korea. Beijing also urged P'yongyang
to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA-- see Glossary).
Although China remains a crucial trade partner for
North Korea, Beijing's former willingness to assist P'yongyang
economically by extending easy credit is increasingly giving way
to no assistance and less and less extension of credit.
The Soviet Union stunned North Korea in September 1990 when
it established diplomatic relations with South Korea. Since that
time and since the collapse of the Soviet Union in August 1991,
North Korea has worked to build a relationship with Russia's new
political leaders. North Korea's efforts to recapture some of the
previous closeness and economic benefits of its relationship with
the former Soviet Union are seriously hampered, however, by
Russia's preoccupation with its own political and economic woes.
Trade between the two nations has dropped dramatically since
1990. North Korea cannot compete with the quality of goods South
Korea can offer. Whereas the Soviet Union had extended credit
without problems to North Korea, Russia has demanded hard
currency for whatever North Korea purchases. Russia also has
signalled North Korea that it intends to revise the 1961 defense
treaty between North Korea and the Soviet Union. The revision
will most likely mean Russia will not be obligated to militarily
assist North Korea except in the event that North Korea is
invaded.
North Korea was diplomatically, politically, and economically
far more isolated in mid-1993 than at any time since 1945.
Although a member of the UN since 1991, North Korea's relations
with its two closest allies--China and the former Soviet Union--
have undergone a fundamental shift unlikely to revert to previous
patterns. This shift poses a dilemma for North Korea. Will it
persist in the pattern of conduct that has made it an
international outlaw, or will it set out in a new direction aimed
at integrating itself into the international community? In mid1993 North Korea appears to be on a dual track. On the one hand,
P'yongyang's signing of the Agreement on Reconciliation,
Nonaggression, Exchanges, and Cooperation, and the conclusion of
a nuclear safeguards agreement with the IAEA point to its
striving for greater acceptance in the international community by
measuring up to internationally desired norms. On the other hand,
P'yongyang continues to act as an international outlaw by selling
ballistic missiles abroad, refusing to sign the convention on
chemical and biological warfare, and refusing to comply with the
terms for nuclear inspections.
Data as of June 1993
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