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Poland Statistical Distortions
Comparative statistics for this period, which generally
caused overstatement of the 1990 decline, must be
understood in
their context. Two factors contributed to this faulty
estimate.
First, 1989 figures provided the basis for evaluating the
economy's 1990 performance. Traditionally, output
statistics in
centrally planned economies were inflated to show success
in
every case. Also, the 1989 figures did not reflect the
lowquality , unprofitable goods produced by subsidized state
enterprises. Unprofitable production was shown as a
statistical
increase in NMP even as it reduced national income in the
real
world. Furthermore, until 1989 personal income and real
wage
calculations used the artificial official price index, so
they
were not a true measure of consumer purchasing power.
On the other hand, official statistics for 1990 and
1991
reflected a downward bias. Revenues and incomes
deliberately were
underestimated in order to avoid higher taxes. Because of
these
distortions, decentralized economic activity in the state
sector
and rapid growth in the private sector clearly required
new
methods of collecting and presenting statistics. In 1992,
however, the Central Statistical Office in Poland had not
yet
removed the distortions of the previous system from its
statistical formats. Unemployment statistics also failed
to keep
pace with the actual economic situation. The rapid
expansion of
private enterprise in 1990 provided jobs for many people
who had
registered for benefits established at the beginning of
the
reform period. Meanwhile, legislation was slow to reform
the
accounting system. Even after statistical adjustment,
however,
the first three years of economic reform brought Poland
genuine,
deep decline in industrial production, in GDP, and in real
personal incomes and wages.
Data as of October 1992
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