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Poland ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
Poland was the first of the East European Comecon
nations to
initiate a move from a centrally planned economy to a
Westerntype market economy. In many ways, however, the economic
crisis
that the postcommunist governments inherited in Poland was
more
severe than that in other countries undergoing the same
transition. The early stages of Poland's transformation
proved
more difficult, more painful, and took longer than
expected.
Nevertheless, the first three postcommunist years brought
a
number of important achievements: elimination of shortages
in the
domestic consumers' market; considerable reduction in the
rate of
inflation; the quick dismantling of the mechanism of the
command
economy; marketization and liberalization of economic
life;
internal convertibility of currency; a very rapid "small
privatization" and a more uneven "large privatization";
the
creation of some of the legal and institutional framework
fundamental to a market economy; and an impressive
expansion in
hard-currency exports. The banking system had moved
decisively
away from the previous state monopoly system, but the
seventy
commercial banks operating in 1992 still did not
constitute a
full Western-style commercial system. The stock market
established in 1990 awaited the impetus of faster
privatization
to expand beyond its initial modest scale. Overall, by
1992 these
initial steps had built a rather sound base for further
progress
in the near term and provided reason for guarded optimism
over
the long term.
Geographic location, the cause of many tragic events in
Poland's history, provides a potentially major advantage
in the
new context of a united Europe. Good commercial relations
with
neighbors on both sides--Germany, Ukraine, Belarus, and
Russia--
promise rapid recovery from the end of the Comecon era.
The
political aspects of economic policy making have been
problematic
in the early reform years, as factionalism has hindered
government implementation of needed legislation. The
impact of
politics is especially noticeable in the privatization
process,
which was slowed dramatically by three changes in the
privatization ministry between 1989 and 1992 and by
attendant
bickering over methodology and priorities. Nevertheless,
possessing relatively favorable human and natural
resources, and
having taken some of the basic steps to repair the
distortions of
centralized management, the Polish economy showed signs in
1992
of becoming an open modern industrial system that could
ensure a
reasonable standard of living for its population.
* * *
A number of English-language sources provide an
overview of
the Polish economy before and after the fall of the
central
planning system. Doing Business with Eastern Europe:
Poland, a publication of Business International,
outlines
trade conditions in the 1980s from the viewpoint of
Western
business. Dariusz Rosati's Poland: Economic Reform and
Policy
in the 1980s and Poland: The Economy in the
1980s,
edited by Roger Clarke, describe the reforms attempted by
the
last communist regimes in response to the failure of the
system
and the social upheavals that resulted. Poland:
Politics,
Economics, and Society by George Kolankiewicz and Paul
G.
Lewis describes economic conditions in the 1980s as they
interacted with social and political changes. Several
journal
articles written by Zbigniew Fallenbuchl between 1990 and
1992
describe in detail the mechanics of Poland's postcommunist
economic transition, including trade policy, banking and
finance,
and privatization issues. The statistical yearbook
published
annually by the Central Statistical Office in Warsaw is
the
fundamental source of economic statistics, but it is
available
only in Polish. (For further information and complete
citations,
see
Bibliography.)
Data as of October 1992
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