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Poland Population Growth and Structure
In the immediate postwar period, Poland's birth rate
surged
upward and many Poles were repatriated from military duty
or
imprisonment abroad. This population increase was
tempered,
however, by continued emigration of ethnic groups such as
the
Jews and non-Polish Slavs after the war ended. The annual
growth
rate peaked in 1953 at more than 1.9 percent; between 1955
and
1960, it averaged 1.7 percent before dropping to 0.9
percent in
1965. The growth rate then remained fairly steady through
1980.
In the early 1980s, however, Poland's growth rate of 1.0
percent
placed it behind only Albania, Ireland, and Iceland among
European countries. The population increase in the early
1980s
was attributed to childbearing by women born in the
postwar
upswing as well as to lower death rates.
Later in the 1980s, as many women passed their peak
childbearing years, projected growth rates again dropped.
From
1985 through 1991, the actual population increase was
smaller
every year. The actual increase in 1991 was 122,000.
Nevertheless, in 1988 one in five persons added to the
population
of Europe outside the Soviet Union was a Pole. Experts
forecast
that in the year 2000 Poland would be contributing
virtually all
the natural growth in Europe's employed population. In
1990 the
shape of Poland's population pyramid was expected to
remain
relatively constant; it was composed of a relatively small
base
of young people, with a wider component of citizens over
age
sixty and a bulge in the cohort born during the postwar
upswing.
In 1990 this group ranged in age from thirty-five to
forty-four.
At the end of 1991, the total population was estimated at
38.3
million; projected population in the year 2000 was 39.5
million.
In 1988 about 51 percent of Poland's population was
female, a
statistic reflecting the fact that average life expectancy
was
about nine years greater for women (66.5 years for men,
75.5 for
women). The ratio of men to women was significantly higher
(as
much as five to two) in rural areas, from which many women
migrated to escape poor conditions on private farms
(see The Working Classes;
The Role of Women
, this ch.). Over a
period of
years, a lower rural birth rate led to a smaller
agricultural
work force. Already in 1981, only 55 percent of the rural
population was of working age, compared with 63 percent of
the
urban population. (Working age was defined as eighteen to
fiftynine for women, eighteen to sixty-four for men.) In 1991
some
29.4 percent of the overall population was below working
age, and
13 percent was past working age. The former figure had
fallen
since the mid-1980s, while the latter rose in the same
period.
The 547,000 live births in Poland in 1991 equaled 14.3
births per
1,000 people
(see Health Issues
, this ch.). However, the
74
deaths versus 100 births recorded that year was a higher
ratio
than in any recent year. (In the early 1980s, the ratio
was less
than 50 to 100.)
In the late 1980s, emigration from Poland was
stimulated
mainly by poor economic conditions. The 1989 total of
26,000
émigrés dropped to 18,500 in 1990, but the slow progress
of
economic reform caused the rate to increase again in 1991.
In
this period, the group most likely to emigrate was healthy
men
between the ages of twenty-six and thirty who had
completed high
school or trade school. The majority in this group came
from
regions of high unemployment and had experience working
abroad.
In 1991 polls showed that as much as one-third of the
Polish
population viewed emigration as at least a theoretical
option to
improve their standard of living.
Data as of October 1992
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