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Colombia Population Trends
At the outset of the twentieth century, Colombia's
population
was approximately 4 million. By 1951 it had grown to more
than 12
million. In mid-1988 it had reached an estimated 28
million.
Population growth rose from 2 percent annually in the
1940s to a
peak of 3.4 percent in the 1950s. It then slowed to the 2
percent
rate by the mid-1970s and appeared to have stabilized at
that level
through the 1980s
(see
fig. 4). Even at this lower rate of
growth,
however, the population was projected to reach 38 million
by the
year 2000.
When modern methods of disease control were adopted by
an
expanding public health system and average income growth
began to
rise in the late 1940s, the death rate fell rapidly. The
birth rate
remained at high levels until the early 1970s (see
table 2,
Appendix).
Life expectancy at birth was estimated to have grown
steadily
from forty-five years in 1951 to fifty-eight years in
1970, whereas
the fertility rate remained nearly seven children per
woman until
the mid-1960s. The resulting rate of natural population
increase
between the late 1950s and the late 1960s was more than 3
percent
annually, one of the highest rates in the world. Despite a
net
emigration during the 1960s, total population growth
remained close
to 3 percent through the end of the decade. Fertility
began
declining sharply in the mid-1960s to about four children
per woman
in the mid-1970s. The corresponding drop in the birth rate
over the
same period was among the most dramatic declines
experienced in any
country. Taking into account net emigration,
the World Bank (see Glossary)
calculated the actual population growth rate at
about 2
percent annually in the mid-1970s.
Since 1966 total fertility had fallen by about 45
percent. At
the same time, life expectancy at birth had been extended
by about
9 percent, whereas the infant mortality rate had dipped by
27
percent. A sharp decline in the dependency ratio also
occurred over
the same period, primarily the result of the steep decline
in the
birth rate (see
table 3, Appendix).
The Colombian experience is remarkable in the
abruptness and
magnitude of the declines in mortality and fertility,
particularly
given the absence of radical changes in the social,
political, or
economic order. Similar declines have taken place in Cuba
and the
Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea), but
only under
conditions of drastic regime change.
A variety of factors combined to produce the fertility
decline
in Colombia. As in most countries, fertility patterns
varied widely
among Colombian socioeconomic groups. In the late 1960s,
for
example, Colombian women living in rural areas who had not
completed primary education had a total fertility rate of
8
children, compared with 3.4 children for urban women with
at least
a full primary education. Since the beginning of the steep
fertility decline in the early 1960s, substantial shifts
have
occurred in the socioeconomic composition of Colombia's
population.
Typically, low-fertility groups, such as better-educated
urban
women, have increased their share of the population at the
expense
of high-fertility groups. Thus, even if reproductive
patterns
within different socioeconomic groups had not changed, the
average
fertility rate would have declined.
Family planning programs did not initiate the fertility
decline
because such programs did not begin until after the onset
of the
rapid fertility decline. Nevertheless, Colombia's
well-organized
family planning programs helped to keep the growth rate
down.
Information about and use of contraceptives increased
rapidly after
1969, when the government began its support of family
planning. In
that year, the Liberal Party (Partido Liberal--PL)
administration
of President Carlos Lleras Restrepo (1966-70) began
providing
subsidized family planning services in local health
centers through
the maternal and child health program of the Ministry of
Public
Health. In 1972 and 1973, the Conservative Party (Partido
Conservador--PC) government of Misael Pastrana Borrero
(1970-74)
extended services to postpartum cases in about ninety
hospitals
throughout the country. Family planning services were
substantially
more accessible in urban than rural areas and more widely
available
through the private sector in urban areas; as much as 50
percent of
the services were probably obtained from private entities.
The
government also subsidized consumers of contraceptives.
Between
1969 and 1976, the proportion of women with knowledge of
contraceptives rose from 51 percent to 72 percent. By 1976
about 95
percent of married women had this knowledge; 59 percent of
married
women had put this knowledge to use in 1976--a large jump
from 34
percent in 1969.
Despite the dramatic fertility decline, the World Bank
emphasized that a considerable gap remained in the 1980s
between
existing fertility levels and those prevailing in modern
industrial
societies. Thus, the demographic transition in Colombia
was far
from complete. The experience of more industrialized
countries
suggested that eventually fertility would decline to the
twochildren level. Whether this occurred quickly (by 2000) or
slowly
(by 2020) would greatly affect the eventual size of the
country's
population, the expansion rate of the labor force in the
1990s and
beyond, and thus the social overhead investment and fiscal
burden
that the society would have to underwrite.
Data as of December 1988
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