|
Somalia Irredentism and the Changing Balance of Power
Somalia's defeat in the Ogaden War, Ethiopian hostility, the
emergence of an alliance between Addis Ababa and Moscow, regional
tensions, and periods of international isolation all resulted
directly or indirectly from Somalia's unwillingness to recognize
political boundaries drawn by British, French, and Italian
colonists, in conjunction with Ethiopia. Since independence,
successive Somali governments had sought to reincorporate those
Somalis living in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti into Greater
Somalia. (Under the Siad Barre regime, the five-pointed star on
the Somali flag represented the northern and southern regions of
the republic and the "unredeemed territories" in Kenya's NorthEastern Province, Ethiopia's Ogaden Province, and Djibouti.) In
1960-64, for example, guerrillas supported by the Somali
government battled local security forces in Kenya and Ethiopia on
behalf of Somalia's territorial claims. Then, in 1964, Ethiopian
and Somali regular forces clashed.
By late 1964, it had become obvious that the initial campaign
to unify all Somalis had failed. Ethiopian forces had established
superiority over the Somalis in the Ogaden, in part because of
Ethiopia's ability to conduct air raids on Somali territory. In
Kenya the government relied on assistance from British
counterinsurgency experts to control Somali guerrillas in what
was then the Northern Frontier District (NFD). In late 1964,
Kenya's president Jomo Kenyatta and Ethiopia's emperor Haile
Selassie signed a mutual defense agreement aimed at containing
Somali aggression. The two countries renewed the pact in 1979 and
again in 1989. These factors, in combination with the opposition
of the Organization of African Unity to Somali aims and defense
costs that amounted to 30 percent of the national budget in the
mid-1980s, forced Mogadishu to reconsider its territorial
ambitions.
Under Mahammad Ibrahim Igaal, Somalia's last civilian
government initiated--and Siad Barre's military regime initially
continued--a policy of détente with Somalia's neighbors. During
the 1970s, however, Somali military strength gradually increased
as a result of Soviet support. The Soviet Union supplied the
Somali National Army (SNA) with the largest tank force in subSaharan Africa, transport vehicles--including armored personnel
carriers--for a largely mechanized infantry, and jet aircraft
that included MiG-21 fighter-bombers. In 1974 Somalia and the
Soviet Union formalized their relationship by signing the Treaty
of Friendship and Cooperation. The Ethiopian army at that time
remained twice as large as Somalia's 23,000-man force, but
because of reduced military aid from the United States, the
Ethiopians were not as well equipped. Furthermore, in 1974
Ethiopia's imperial government was headed toward collapse. In
September of that year a group of military officers deposed Haile
Selassie. Conflict ensued among those responsible for his
overthrow, and several insurgent groups sought to secede from the
erstwhile empire.
Somalia's military buildup, coincident with the turmoil in
Ethiopia, temporarily altered the balance of power between the
two countries. In 1976-77 Somalia attempted to take advantage of
the situation by supporting a guerrilla campaign by the Western
Somali Liberation Front (WSLF), a pro-Somali liberation group in
the Ogaden, to seize the Ogaden from Ethiopia. By the late summer
of 1977, Somali armored forces and mechanized infantry supported
by aircraft had invaded the Ogaden, capturing 60 percent of the
disputed territory within several weeks.
Meanwhile, the Soviet Union had started supporting the
Marxist-Leninist regime that had emerged in Ethiopia while
simultaneously attempting to maintain Somalia as a client state.
After its attempts at mediation failed, the Soviet Union decided
to abandon Somalia. In August 1977, the Soviet Union suspended
arms shipments to Siad Barre's regime and accelerated military
deliveries to Ethiopia. Three months later, Somalia renounced the
Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation, expelled all Soviet
advisers, broke diplomatic relations with Cuba, and ejected all
Soviet personnel from Somalia.
Following Moscow's decision to support Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
received massive amounts of Soviet arms. Along with Soviet
military advisers, about 15,000 Cuban combat troops also arrived.
By early 1978, this aid had turned the tide of war in Ethiopia's
favor. By March 9, 1978, when Siad Barre announced the withdrawal
of the Somali armed forces from the Ogaden, the Somali military
had lost 8,000 men--one-third of the SNA, three-quarters of its
armored units, and half of the Somali Air Force (SAF).
For all intents and purposes, Ethiopia's victory during the
Ogaden War ended Mogadishu's dream of recreating Greater Somalia.
Even before the setback in the Ogaden, Siad Barre had
relinquished his claim to Djibouti after 95 percent of the voters
in that country indicated a preference for independence over
incorporation into Somalia. In 1981 Somali-Kenyan relations
improved after Siad Barre visited Nairobi and indicated that his
government no longer had any claim to Kenyan territory. In
December 1984, Somalia and Kenya signed a pact that pledged both
governments to cease hostilities along their common frontier.
Subsequently, the level of insurgent activity along the border
was minimal. However, the activities of Somali shiftas, or
bandits and ivory poachers and the periodic influx of Somali
refugees into Kenya continued to strain relations between
Mogadishu and Nairobi.
|
