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Syria Syrian-Soviet Relations
In 1987 the relationship between Syria and the Soviet Union
appeared to be close and deep. Syria was clearly favored among
Soviet client states in the Third World. For over twenty years,
Syria had obtained most of its military equipment from the Soviet
Union. In addition, there was a large Soviet military presence in
Syria; by mid-1984 there were an estimated 13,000 Soviet and East
European advisers in Syria. However, many of these advisers were
withdrawn in 1985 during a dispute so that in 1986 between 2,000
and 5,000 remained.
Syrian-Soviet relations were upgraded and formalized in the
Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation signed by Assad in Moscow in
October 1980. The treaty runs for twenty years and has automatic
five-year extensions, unless one of the parties terminates the
agreement. It provides for regular consultations on bilateral and
multilateral issues of interest, coordination of responses in the
event of a crisis, and military cooperation.
A secret protocol to the treaty reputedly details Soviet
military obligations to Syria and may mandate the dispatch of
Soviet troops to Syria in case of an Israeli invasion. Syrian
defense minister Tlas warned in 1984 that the Soviet Union would
dispatch two Soviet airborne divisions to Syria within eight
hours in the event of a conflict with Israel. Tlas's has also
stated that the Soviet Union would use nuclear weapons to protect
Syria. Tlas' statements, however, were not endorsed by the Soviet
Union. Syrian-Soviet nuclear cooperation is limited to a February
1983 agreement for cooperation and exchange for peaceful
purposes.
Although the Syrian-Soviet relationship is close, Syria is
not a Soviet proxy, and the Soviet Union has gained little
leverage over Syrian domestic and regional policy in return for
its military support. Although Syria may be aligned with the
Soviet Union, its basic orientation is toward the West. Syrian
leaders have little affinity with communism, and Moscow has been
powerless to prevent Syrian repression of the SCP. Syria's
pursuit of independent policies has caused considerable friction
with the Soviet Union. Examples of Syrian intransigence include
its 1983 rebuff of Soviet requests for a naval base at the port
of Tartus and its deviation from Moscow with regard to the
Palestinian issue.
Former Soviet leader Yuri Andropov appeared to be a staunch
advocate of Syria, and the Soviet Union acquiesced to many of
Syria's demands. However, after Mikhail Gorbachev succeeded
Konstantin Chernenko in March 1985, the Soviet Union reassessed
its relationship with Syria. Assad made a brief visit to Moscow
in May 1985 and restated Syria's plea for a stronger Soviet
military commitment. However, the Soviet leadership reprimanded
him for Syria's hostility toward the PLO and Iraq and reminded
him that Syria was not its only Middle Eastern ally. In June
1985, Assad again met Gorbachev in Moscow to debate the
Palestinian issue, but there was no resolution. Shortly
thereafter, the Soviets withdrew a significant number of their
military advisers from Syria. In early 1987, it was not known
whether Assad expelled the Soviet advisers in retaliation for his
cold reception in Moscow or whether the withdrawal occurred at
Soviet behest; however, the strain in relations was clear.
Syria's persistent refusal to accede to Soviet desires regarding
the PLO was becoming a test case of the relative power of the
patron state and its client. At the same time, the Soviet Union
could not afford to appear to abandon Syria.
In May 1986, Gorbachev renewed Soviet promises to supply
Syria with military equipment and excoriated Israeli and American
pressure on Syria. Yet Gorbachev, unlike his predecessors,
appeared prepared to pressure Syria for concessions in return for
Soviet military aid. Gorbachev expected Syria to support his
embryonic new agenda for the Middle East, which revived the longstanding Soviet plan for an international Middle East peace
conference attended by all parties, including Israel.
* * *
Most information on Syria is fragmentary or impressionistic.
Moreover, primary source material is in Arabic, although much of
it has been translated by the United States Joint Publications
Research Service. Scholarly books on Syrian internal politics are
few, and although journalistic accounts are more numerous, they
generally focus on Syrian foreign policy. However, published
materials have increased in the 1980s and provide an adequate
basis for an informed understanding of the country. Because
Syria's high profile in Middle Eastern events has sparked renewed
scholarly interest in the country, a considerable number of new
books about Syria are due for publication in 1987 and 1988. For
those interested in gaining further insight into Syria politics,
the following works offer varied and broad perspectives:
Syria: Modern State in an Ancient Land by; John F. Devlin;
Syria under Assad,an anthology edited by Moshe Ma'oz and
Avner Yaniv; The Islamic Struggle in Syria by Umar F. AbdAllah ; Linkage Politics in the Middle East: Syria Between
Domestic and External Conflict, 1961-1970 by Yaacov BarSimon -Tov; The Ba'ath and Syria, 1947-1982: The Evolution of
Ideology, Party, and State by Robert W. Olson; and the
chapter on Syria by Yosef Olmert in the annual Middle East
Contemporary Survey. Also of interest are The Struggle for
Power in Syria: Sectarianism, Regionalism, and Tribalism in
Politics, 1961-1978 by Nikolaos Van Dam; Political
Participation under Military Regimes, by Gabriel Ben-Dor.
"Domestic/External Linkages: Syria, 1961-1967" by Robert Burrowes
and Gerald DeMaio; and "Syria under Asad, 1970-78: The Centers of
Power," both by Adeed I. Dawisha; The Ba'th Party: A History
from Its Origins to 1966 by John F. Devlin, "Syria and the
Baath Party" by John Galvani; the Syria section in George M.
Haddad's Revolutions and Military Rule in the Middle East: The
Arab States, II, Part I. Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan;
Political Organization in Syria: A Case of Mobilization
Politics; by Raymond A. Hinnebusch; Arab Politics: The
Search for Legitimacy by Michael C. Hudson; and "Society and
State in Modern Syria" by Moshe Ma'oz.
In addition, readers are referred to Ted Morgan's "The Wild
Men Become a Nation"; Tabitha Petran's seminal work
Syria;Itamar Rabinovitch's insightfulSyria under the
Baath, 1963-66: The Army-Party Symbiosis; Gordon H. Torrey's
informed observations on "Aspects of the Political Elites in
Syria," as well as his "The Ba'th--Ideology and Practice"; P. J.
Vatikiotis's analysis of "The Politics of the Fertile Crecent";
and Labib Zuwiyya Yamak's highly regarded The Syrian Social
Nationalist Party: An Ideological Analysis. (For further
information and complete citations,
see
Bibliography.)
Data as of April 1987
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