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Angola Regional Accord
On December 22, 1988, after eight years of
negotiations,
Angola, Cuba, and South Africa concluded a regional accord
that
provided for the removal of Cuban troops from Angola. In a
series
of talks mediated by the United States, the three parties
agreed to
link Namibian independence from South African rule to a
staged
withdrawal of Cuban troops from Angola. Both processes
were to
begin in 1989. Cuban troops were to move north of the
fifteenth
parallel, away from the Namibian border, by August 1,
1989. All
Cuban troops were to be withdrawn from Angolan territory
by July 1,
1991
(see Appendix B).
The December 1988 regional accords did not attempt to
resolve
the ongoing conflict between Angolan forces and UNITA.
Rather, it
addressed the 1978 UN Security Council Resolution 435,
which called
for South African withdrawal and free elections in Namibia
and
prohibited further South African incursions into Angola.
The United
States promised continued support for UNITA until a
negotiated
truce and power-sharing arrangement were accomplished.
The December 1988 regional accords created a joint
commission
of representatives from Angola, Cuba, South Africa, the
United
States, and the Soviet Union to resolve conflicts that
threatened
to disrupt its implementation. However, immediate
responsibility
for the accord lay primarily with the UN, which still
required an
enabling resolution by the Security Council, a funding
resolution
by the General Assembly, and a concrete logistical plan
for member
states to establish and maintain a Namibian peacekeeping
force as
part of the UN Transition Assistance Group (UNTAG) called
for by
Resolution 435.
Angola's participation in the regional accords was
pragmatic.
The accords promised overall gains, but not without costs.
They
entailed the eventual loss of Cuban military support for
the MPLAPT but countered this with the possible benefits of
improved
relations with South Africa--primarily an end to South
Africansupported insurgency. The accords also suggested possible
benefits
from improved regional trade, membership in the
World Bank (see Glossary) and
International Monetary Fund (IMF--see Glossary), and
loans for development purposes. President dos Santos
intended to
reduce Angola's share of the cost of the Cuban presence,
to reduce
social tensions in areas where Cuban military units were
stationed,
and to weaken UNITA's argument that the MPLA-PT had
allowed an
occupation force to install itself in Angola. The MPLA-PT
also
hoped to gain a friendly SWAPO government in neighboring
Namibia
and an end to sanctuary for UNITA forces in Namibian
territory.
(This goal was complicated by the fact that Ovambo
populations in
southern Angola and Namibia provided the core of SWAPO,
and, at the
same time, many Ovambo people supported UNITA.)
As the first Cuban troops planned to withdraw from
Angola, most
parties to the accords still feared that it might fail.
Angolan
leaders worried that the UNITA insurgency would intensify
in the
face of the Cuban withdrawal; that UNITA leaders might
find new
sources of external assistance, possibly channeled through
Zaire;
and that South African incursions into Angola might recur
on the
grounds that ANC or SWAPO bases remained active in
southern Angola.
South African negotiators expressed the fear that the
Cuban troop
withdrawal, which could not be accurately verified, might
not be
complete; that Cuban troops might move into Zambia or
other
neighboring states, only to return to Angola in response
to UNITA
activity; or that SWAPO activity in Namibia might prompt
new South
African assaults on Namibian and Angolan territory. SWAPO
negotiators, in turn, feared that South Africa or some of
Namibia's
70,000 whites might block the elections guaranteed by UN
Resolution
435, possibly bringing South African forces back into
Namibia and
scuttling the entire accords. These and other
apprehensions were
evident in late 1988, but substantial hope remained that
all
regional leaders supported the peace process and would
work toward
its implementation.
Data as of February 1989
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