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Honduras Population Growth
In the second half of the twentieth century, Honduras
underwent
explosive population growth. In the 1910 census, the
annual rate of
population growth barely exceeded 1.5 percent. By 1950 it
had
reached 3 percent. From 1960 to 1990, the population
growth rate
climbed to 3.3 percent. By 1992 the annual population
growth had
slowed somewhat, but only to an estimated 2.8 percent.
The country's high birth rate has led Honduras's
population to
double about every twenty-five years. The 1950 census
counted
1,368,605 inhabitants, almost twice as many as the 1926
census
recorded. By 1974 the population had almost doubled once
again. As
of July 1992, the population was estimated to be
5,092,776.
Several factors have contributed to the rapid
population rise.
Honduras has consistently maintained high birth rates
during the
twentieth century. The crude birth rate (CBR--the annual
number of
births per 1,000 inhabitants) from the beginning to the
midpoint of
the century fluctuated between 41.7 and 44.5 births per
1,000
inhabitants. From around 1950 to 1975, Honduras had the
highest CBR
in Latin America. Since the mid-1970s, the CBR has dropped
and
steadied somewhat. In 1990 the CBR stood at 39 births per
1,000
inhabitants.
The total fertility rate (TFR-the average number of
children a
woman would bear in her lifetime) had dropped to 7.5
children per
woman by the early 1970s. Since the 1970s, the TFR in
Honduras has
declined. In 1990 it was 5.2, and the projected TFR for
the year
2000 is 4.1.
In 1993, however, the TFR varied considerably according
to a
woman's residence in rural or urban areas and according to
income
levels. Rural women had an average of 8.7 children while
urban
women had 5.3 children. The TFR for all upper and middle
income
women (rural and urban) was 5.8, while among lower income
women it
was approximately 8.0.
Regional differences in birth rates, coupled with
internal
migration, are expected to change Honduras's population
distribution. The department of Cortés, with a high
population
growth rate, and the departments of Colón and Gracias a
Dios,
heretofore thinly populated areas in the northeast, are
expected to
become the country's fastest growing areas. The emerging
population
pattern is one of significant growth in the central
highlands near
Tegucigalpa and along the entire Caribbean coast region
from San
Pedro Sula east to Gracias a Dios. The departments
bordering El
Salvador, in the southwest region of the country, are
expected to
have the slowest population growth rate.
The absorption of this expanding population represents
a serious
challenge to the Honduran government. Already inadequate
health
services, as well as poor educational, employment, and
housing
opportunities, will be increasingly burdened by a rapidly
growing
and young population. In 1989 slightly more than 2 million
Hondurans, or 45 percent, were between one and fourteen
years old.
Frustrated expectations for a better standard of living
among this
youthful population raise the possibility of unrest in the
future.
Data as of December 1993
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