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Japan Age Structure
Like other postindustrial countries, Japan faces the
problems
associated with an aging population
(see Patterns of Development
, ch. 4). In 1989, only 11.6 percent of the population was
sixty-five
years or older, but projections were that 25.6 percent
would be in
that age category by 2030 (see
table 2, Appendix). That
shift will
make Japan one of the world's most elderly societies, and
the
change will have taken place in a shorter span of time
than in any
other country.
This aging of the population was brought about by a
combination
of low fertility and high life expectancies. In 1993 the
fertility
rate was estimated at 10.3 per 1,000 population, and the
average
number of children born to a woman over her lifetime has
been fewer
than two since the late 1970s (the average number was
estimated at
1.5 in 1993). Family planning was nearly universal, with
condoms
and legal abortions the main forms of birth control. A
number of
factors contributed to the trend toward small families:
late
marriage, increased participation of women in the labor
force,
small living spaces, and the high costs of children's
education.
Life expectancies at birth, 76.4 years for males and 82.2
years for
women in 1993, were the highest in the world. (The
expected life
span at the end of World War II, for both males and
females, was
fifty years.) The mortality rate in 1993 was estimated at
7.2 per
1,000 population. The leading causes of death are cancer,
heart
disease, and cerebrovascular disease, a pattern common to
postindustrial societies
(see Health Care
, this ch.).
Public policy, the media, and discussions with private
citizens
revealed a high level of concern for the implications of
one in
four persons in Japan being sixty-five or older. By 2025
the
dependency ratio (the ratio of people under fifteen years
plus
those sixty-five and older to those aged fifteen to
sixty-five,
indicating in a general way the ratio of the dependent
population
to the working population) was expected to be two
dependents for
every three workers. The aging of the population was
already
becoming evident in the aging of the labor force and the
shortage
of young workers in the late 1980s, with potential impacts
on
employment practices, wages and benefits, and the roles of
women in
the labor force
(see The Structure of Japan's Labor Market
, ch. 4).
The increasing proportion of elderly people in the
population also
had a major impact on government spending. As recently as
the early
1970s, social expenditures amounted to only about 6
percent of
Japan's national income. In 1992 that portion of the
national
budget was 18 percent, and it was expected that by 2025,
27 percent
of national income would be spent on social welfare.
In addition, the median age of the elderly population
was
rising in the late 1980s
(see
fig. 4). The proportion of
people
aged seventy-five to eighty-five was expected to increase
from 6
percent in 1985 to 15 percent in 2025. Because the
incidence of
chronic disease increases with age, the healthcare and
pension
systems, too, are expected to come under severe strain.
The
government in the mid-1980s began to reevaluate the
relative
burdens of government and the private sector in health
care and
pensions, and it established policies to control
government costs
in these programs. Recognizing the lower probability that
an
elderly person will be residing with an adult child and
the higher
probability of any daughter or daughter-in-law's
participation in
the paid labor force, the government encouraged
establishment of
nursing homes, day-care facilities for the elderly, and
home health
programs. Longer life spans are altering relations between
spouses
and across generations, creating new government
responsibilities,
and changing virtually all aspects of social life.
Data as of January 1994
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