North Korea Employment in Offensive Scenario
Figure 14. Comparison of Armed Forces, North Korea and
South Korea,
Source: Based on information from United States, Arms Control
and Disarmament Agency, World Military Expenditures and
Arms Transfers, 1990, Washington, 1991, 69.
Selected Years, 1979-89
The basic goal of a North Korean southern offensive is
destruction of allied defenses either before South Korea can
fully mobilize its national power or before significant
reinforcement from the United States can arrive and be deployed.
Final war preparations most likely would not involve a noticeable
surge in military-related activity because almost two-thirds of
the ground forces and a significant amount of logistical support
already are concentrated in the forward area between P'yongyang
and the DMZ. Immediately preceding the initial infantry assault,
North Korean artillery units would attempt to saturate the firstechelon South Korean defense with preparatory and continuous
suppressive fire. North Korean infantry and armor elements of the
first-echelon divisions of the forward conventional corps would
attack selected narrow fronts to create gaps for the follow-on
echelons. The penetration would be supported by North Korean
special operations forces. At the same time, the KPA would launch
several diversionary attacks in order to confuse and disperse the
defensive effort. The mechanized corps would attempt to push
through any gaps, bypass and isolate defenders, and penetrate as
deeply as possible into the strategic rear.
The overall objective of the breakout would be to disturb the
coherence of South Korea defenses in depth--including its key
command, control, communications, and intelligence infrastructure
(C3I)--so as to disrupt any significant counterattacks. In
support of what would be primarily a ground war, the navy might
attempt to insert amphibious-trained special operations forces on
each coast or to secure the northern islands or support
operations against the Kimp'o Peninsula, across the Han River
estuary near Seoul. In addition, Scud and FROG missiles would be
used during the assault to disrupt rear areas and C3I. After
initial naval support and supply, however, the navy's limited
capability to control the sea would leave embarked forces on
their own. Both the navy and the air force would be hard pressed
to sustain a level of offensive operations and would revert to a
largely defensive role.
In order for the KPA's military strategy to succeed on the
battlefield, the KPA would have to achieve initial strategic
surprise and execute its operations quickly. The most critical
period would probably be choosing when and where to commit the
mobile exploitation forces.
Data as of June 1993
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