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North Korea The Nuclear Option
In the early 1990s, there was growing international concern
that North Korea was seeking to produce nuclear weapons. In 1991,
despite North Korea's repeated denials of a nuclear weapons
program, United States policy experts generally agreed that
P'yongyang was engaged in a nuclear weapons program. The debate
has centered on when, rather than whether, North Korea will have
a nuclear capability. Estimates range from 1993 to several years
later.
North Korean nuclear-related activities began in 1955, when
representatives of the Academy of Sciences participated in an
East European conference on the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.
In 1956 North Korea signed two agreements with the Soviet Union
covering joint nuclear research. In 1959 additional agreements on
the peaceful uses of nuclear energy were signed with the Soviet
Union and China. The 1959 Soviet agreement apparently included
setting up a nuclear research facility under the Academy of
Sciences near Yngbyn and developing a nuclear-related
curriculum at Kim Il Sung University. Chinese and Soviet
assistance with training of nuclear scientists and technicians,
although not continuous, is the major source of North Korean
nuclear expertise. In the 1980s, P'yongyang had a rather eclectic
if low-key web of nuclear connections that included Cuba,
Czechoslovakia, and the former Democratic Republic of Germany
(East Germany). North Korea also is believed to have nuclearrelated connections with Egypt, Iran, Libya, Romania, and Syria.
The Yngbyn center was established in early 1962 at Yong
Dong on the Kuryong River, approximately 100 kilometers north of
Pyngyang and southwest of the city of Yngbyn. Construction
began in 1965 on a Soviet-supplied two-kilowatt nuclear research
reactor (IRT2000) that is believed to have become operational in
1967. The reactor was brought under International Atomic Energy
Agency
(IAEA--see Glossary)
controls in July 1977 and was
modified over time to increase its power to approximately eight
kilowatts.
During the mid-1970s, North Korea began expanding its nuclear
infrastructure. In 1980 construction began on an indigenously
designed, graphite-moderated, gas-cooled thirty-megawatt reactor,
which probably is primarily for plutonium production. The use of
graphite and natural uranium allowed North Korea to avoid foreign
involvement and constraints. The reactor apparently became
operational in 1987, but its existence has not been formally
acknowledged by North Korea.
According to many sources, United States satellites detected
additional nuclear-related facilities under construction in the
Yngbyn area during 1989. When completed, the facilities will
give North Korea the complete nuclear fuel cycle needed for
weapons production. These facilities consist of a high explosives
testing site, a reprocessing facility, a third reactor in the
fifty-megawatt to 200-megawatt range, and associated support
facilities. According to sources, construction began on a third
reactor in 1984-85 and on a reprocessing facility in 1988-89; the
former is scheduled to be operational by the end of 1992 but was
not on-line as of mid-1993, and the latter perhaps a little
later. Neither the thirty-megawatt reactor nor the third reactor
are said to be connected to a power grid for power generation. In
1990 these reports were substantiated by satellite photography
read by Japanese scientists. According to South Korean sources,
if all the facilities come online, North Korea will be capable of
producing enough plutonium for two to four twenty-kiloton nuclear
weapons a year. The facilities, however, are contaminated and not
operational.
P'yongyang signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in July
1985 but delayed signing the IAEA Full Scope Safeguards
Agreement. The IAEA granted an eighteen-month extension of the
usual eighteen months necessary to administer and sign such
agreements. North Korea agreed in principle to the agreement in
July 1991, but delayed signing until January 30, 1992;
implementation was not to take place until after ratification of
the agreement. In a series of agreements with South Korea at the
end of 1991, North Korea agreed to set up a Joint Nuclear Control
Committee (JNCC) to ensure that there are no nuclear weapons in
either country. The committee will develop procedures for
additional inspections to encompass facilities normally outside
IAEA jurisdiction, such as military facilities.
Data as of June 1993
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